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Future Projection of Extreme Precipitation Indices over the Qilian Mountains under Global Warming

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  • Yanzhao Li

    (Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Xiang Qin

    (Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    Qilianshan Observation and Research Station of Cryosphere and Ecologic Environment, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Zizhen Jin

    (Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Yushuo Liu

    (Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    Qilianshan Observation and Research Station of Cryosphere and Ecologic Environment, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)

Abstract

The Qilian Mountains are a climate-sensitive area in northwest China, and extreme precipitation events have an important impact on its ecological environment. Therefore, considering the global warming scenario, it is highly important to project the extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the future. This study is based on three CMIP6 models (CESM2, EC-Earth3, and KACE-1-0-G). A bias correction algorithm (QDM) was used to correct the precipitation outputs of the models. The eight extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains during the historical period and in the future were calculated using meteorological software (ClimPACT2), and the performance of the CMIP6 models to simulate the extreme precipitation indices of the Qilian Mountains in the historical period was evaluated. Results revealed that: (1) The corrected CMIP6 models could simulate the changes in extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the historical period relatively well, and the corrected CESM2 displayed better simulation as compared to the other two CMIP6 models. The CMIP6 models performed well while simulating R10mm (CC is higher than 0.71) and PRCPTOT (CC is higher than 0.84). (2) The changes in the eight extreme precipitation indices were greater with the enhancement of the SSP scenario. The growth rate of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century under SSP585 is significantly higher than the other two SSP scenarios. The increment of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains mainly comes from the increase in heavy precipitation. (3) The Qilian Mountains will become wetter in the 21st century, especially in the central and eastern regions. The largest increase in precipitation intensity will be observed in the western Qilian Mountains. Additionally, total precipitation will also increase in the middle and end of the 21st century under SSP585. Furthermore, the precipitation increment of the Qilian Mountains will increase with the altitude in the middle and end of the 21st century. This study aims to provide a reference for the changes in extreme precipitation events, glacier mass balance, and water resources in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanzhao Li & Xiang Qin & Zizhen Jin & Yushuo Liu, 2023. "Future Projection of Extreme Precipitation Indices over the Qilian Mountains under Global Warming," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-28, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:6:p:4961-:d:1094595
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Veronika Eyring & Peter M. Cox & Gregory M. Flato & Peter J. Gleckler & Gab Abramowitz & Peter Caldwell & William D. Collins & Bettina K. Gier & Alex D. Hall & Forrest M. Hoffman & George C. Hurtt & A, 2019. "Taking climate model evaluation to the next level," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(2), pages 102-110, February.
    2. Andreas F. Prein & Roy M. Rasmussen & Kyoko Ikeda & Changhai Liu & Martyn P. Clark & Greg J. Holland, 2017. "The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 48-52, January.
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