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The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local Weather Conditions Matter

Author

Listed:
  • Cécile Couharde

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Olivier Damette
  • Rémi Generoso
  • Kamiar Mohaddes

Abstract

This paper contributes to the climate-economy literature by analyzing the role of weather patterns in influencing the transmission of global climate cycles to economic growth. More specifically, we focus on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and their interactions with local weather conditions, taking into account the heterogeneous and cumulative effects of weather patterns on economic growth and the asymmetry and nonlinearity in the global influence of ENSO on economic activity. Using data on 75 countries over the period 1975-2014, we provide evidence for the negative growth effects of ENSO events and show that there are substantial differences between its warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases and between climate zones. These differences are due to the heterogeneity in weather responses to ENSO events, known as teleconnections, which has so far not been taken into account by economists, and which will become more important in the climate-economy relationship given that climate change may substantially strengthen long-distance relationships between weather patterns around the world. We also show that the negative growth effects associated with these teleconnections are robust to the definition of ENSO events and more important over shorter meteorological onsets.
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Suggested Citation

  • Cécile Couharde & Olivier Damette & Rémi Generoso & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2020. "The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local Weather Conditions Matter," Post-Print hal-02947178, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02947178
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Zapata, 2023. "Weather Disasters, Material Losses and Income Inequality: Evidence from a Tropical, Middle-Income Country," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 231-251, July.
    2. Wenju Cai & Yi Liu & Xiaopei Lin & Ziguang Li & Ying Zhang & David Newth, 2024. "Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate," Video Library 2094, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Damette, Olivier & Mathonnat, Clément & Thavard, Julien, 2024. "Climate and sovereign risk: The Latin American experience with strong ENSO events," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    5. Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Camilo Andrés Orozco‐Vanegas & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2022. "Extreme weather events and high Colombian food prices: A non‐stationary extreme value approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 21-40, November.
    6. David Ubilava, 2023. "Climate, Crops, and Postharvest Conflict," Papers 2311.16370, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    7. Atems, Bebonchu & Sardar, Naafey, 2021. "Exploring asymmetries in the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on U.S. food and agricultural stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-14.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    [Pas de mot-clé];

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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