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Attribution Assessment and Prediction of Runoff Change in the Han River Basin, China

Author

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  • Mengru Wei

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Zhe Yuan

    (Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Changjiang Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources of China, Wuhan 430010, China)

  • Jijun Xu

    (Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Changjiang Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources of China, Wuhan 430010, China)

  • Mengqi Shi

    (College of Geomatic, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an 710054, China)

  • Xin Wen

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract

The ecological environment and water resources of the Han River Basin (HRB) are incredibly susceptible to global warming. Naturally, the analysis of future runoff in HRB is believed to offer a theoretical basis for water resources management and ecological protection in HRB. The purpose of this study is to investigate and forecast the effects of climate change and land use change on runoff in the HRB. This study uses CMIP6 data to simulate three future climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585) for changes in precipitation and temperature, a CA-Markov model to simulate future land use change scenarios, and the Budyko framework to predict future runoff changes. The results show that: (1) Between 1974 and 2014, annual runoff ( R ) and annual precipitation ( P ) in the HRB decline not so significantly with a rate of 1.3673 mm/a and 1.2709 mm/a, while maximum temperature ( Tmax ) and minimum temperature ( Tmin ) and potential evapotranspiration ( E 0 ) show a non-significantly increasing trend with 0.0296 °C/a, 0.0204 °C/a and 1.3313 mm/a, respectively. Precipitation is considered as main contributor to the decline in Han River runoff, accounting for 54.1%. (2) In the HRB, overall precipitation and temperature are estimated to rise in the coming years, with all other hydrological variables. The comparison of precipitation rise under each scenario is as follows: SSP126 scenario > SSP585 scenario > SSP245 scenario. The comparison of the temperature increase under each scenario is as follows: SSP585 scenario > SSP245 scenario > SSP126 scenario. (3) In the HRB, farmland and grassland land will continue to decline in the future. The amount of forest acreage is projected to decline but not so significantly. (4) The future runoff of the HRB shows an increasing trend, and the future runoff varies in different scenarios and periods. Under the land use scenarios of maintaining LUCC1992–2014 and LUCC2040 and LUCC2060, the R change rates in 2015–2040 are 8.27–25.47% and −8.04–19.35%, respectively, and the R in 2040–2060 are 2.09–13.66% and 19.35–31.52%. At the same time, it is very likely to overestimate the future runoff of the HRB without considering the changes in the land use data of the underlying surface in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Mengru Wei & Zhe Yuan & Jijun Xu & Mengqi Shi & Xin Wen, 2022. "Attribution Assessment and Prediction of Runoff Change in the Han River Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-22, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:4:p:2393-:d:753203
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Junlong Liu & Jin Chen & Jijun Xu & Yuru Lin & Zhe Yuan & Mingyuan Zhou, 2019. "Attribution of Runoff Variation in the Headwaters of the Yangtze River Based on the Budyko Hypothesis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-15, July.
    2. Guangxing Ji & Zhizhu Lai & Haibin Xia & Hao Liu & Zheng Wang, 2021. "Future Runoff Variation and Flood Disaster Prediction of the Yellow River Basin Based on CA-Markov and SWAT," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Jiahao Zheng & Yi He & Xiaohui Jiang & Tong Nie & Yuxin Lei, 2021. "Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in Kuye River Basin Based on Three Budyko Methods," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Guangxing Ji & Leying Wu & Liangdong Wang & Dan Yan & Zhizhu Lai, 2021. "Attribution Analysis of Seasonal Runoff in the Source Region of the Yellow River Using Seasonal Budyko Hypothesis," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-14, May.
    5. Lingcheng Li & Liping Zhang & Jun Xia & Christopher Gippel & Renchao Wang & Sidong Zeng, 2015. "Implications of Modelled Climate and Land Cover Changes on Runoff in the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2563-2579, June.
    6. Annina Sorg & Tobias Bolch & Markus Stoffel & Olga Solomina & Martin Beniston, 2012. "Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia)," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(10), pages 725-731, October.
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