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The Responses of the Ecosystems in the Tianshan North Slope under Multiple Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios in the Middle of the 21st Century

Author

Listed:
  • Peng Cai

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium
    University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100094, China
    Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi China and Gent Belgium, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Chaofan Li

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Geping Luo

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100094, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Chi Zhang

    (Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, College of Resources and Environment, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, China)

  • Friday Uchenna Ochege

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100094, China)

  • Steven Caluwaerts

    (Royal Meteorological Institute, 1180 Brussels, Belgium
    Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, 9000 Ghent, Belgium)

  • Lesley De Cruz

    (Royal Meteorological Institute, 1180 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Rozemien De Troch

    (Royal Meteorological Institute, 1180 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Sara Top

    (Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium
    Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, 9000 Ghent, Belgium)

  • Piet Termonia

    (Royal Meteorological Institute, 1180 Brussels, Belgium
    Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, 9000 Ghent, Belgium)

  • Philippe De Maeyer

    (Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium
    Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi China and Gent Belgium, Urumqi 830011, China)

Abstract

The arid ecosystem is fragile and sensitive to the changes in climate and CO 2 concentration. Exploring the responses of the arid ecosystem to the changes under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) is of particular significance for the sustainable development of the ecosystem. In this study, the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and water use efficiency (WUE) for arid ecosystems in Tianshan North Slope are explored by running the arid ecosystem model at 25 km resolution under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The climate in Tianshan North Slope presents a wet-warming trend during 2006–2055 under each RCP scenario with temporal and spatial heterogeneity. In response to the changes in climate and CO 2 , the regional annual NPP and ET increased during 2006–2055 by a respectively maximum rate of 2.15 g C m −2 year −1 and 0.52 mm year −1 under RCP8.5. Both the NPP and ET share a similar temporal and spatial heterogeneity with climate change. Different vegetation types respond differently to the changes under different RCP scenarios with increasing WUE. Under each RCP, the non-phreatophyte, phreatophyte, and grass are more sensitive to the changes than in the others, and the broadleaf forest and cropland are less sensitive to the changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng Cai & Chaofan Li & Geping Luo & Chi Zhang & Friday Uchenna Ochege & Steven Caluwaerts & Lesley De Cruz & Rozemien De Troch & Sara Top & Piet Termonia & Philippe De Maeyer, 2020. "The Responses of the Ecosystems in the Tianshan North Slope under Multiple Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios in the Middle of the 21st Century," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:427-:d:305613
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Chaofan & Zhang, Chi & Luo, Geping & Chen, Xi, 2013. "Modeling the carbon dynamics of the dryland ecosystems in Xinjiang, China from 1981 to 2007—The spatiotemporal patterns and climate controls," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 267(C), pages 148-157.
    2. Miao Yu & Guiling Wang & Dana Parr & Kazi Ahmed, 2014. "Future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem based on a dynamic vegetation model driven with RCP8.5 climate projections from 19 GCMs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 257-271, November.
    3. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    4. Qifei Han & Geping Luo & Chaofan Li & Shoubo Li, 2018. "Response of Carbon Dynamics to Climate Change Varied among Different Vegetation Types in Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-15, September.
    5. Zhang, Chi & Li, Chaofan & Luo, Geping & Chen, Xi, 2013. "Modeling plant structure and its impacts on carbon and water cycles of the Central Asian arid ecosystem in the context of climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 267(C), pages 158-179.
    6. Han, Qifei & Li, Chaofan & Zhao, Chengyi & Zhang, Yaoqi & Li, Shoubo, 2018. "Grazing decreased water use efficiency in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 388(C), pages 72-79.
    7. Fang, Xia & Chen, Zhi & Guo, Xulin & Zhu, Shihua & Liu, Tong & Li, Chaofan & He, Biao, 2019. "Impacts and uncertainties of climate/CO2 change on net primary productivity in Xinjiang, China (2000–2014): A modelling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 408(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Chaofan Li & Qifei Han & Geping Luo & Chengyi Zhao & Shoubo Li & Yuangang Wang & Dongsheng Yu, 2018. "Effects of Cropland Conversion and Climate Change on Agrosystem Carbon Balance of China’s Dryland: A Typical Watershed Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huili He & Rafiq Hamdi & Geping Luo & Peng Cai & Xiuliang Yuan & Miao Zhang & Piet Termonia & Philippe Maeyer & Alishir Kurban, 2022. "The summer cooling effect under the projected restoration of Aral Sea in Central Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-21, September.

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