IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v164y2021i3d10.1007_s10584-021-03014-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Costs from labor losses due to extreme heat in the USA attributable to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Yuqiang Zhang

    (Duke University)

  • Drew T. Shindell

    (Duke University
    Tel Aviv University)

Abstract

Extreme heat is already occurring more frequently and with greater intensity, with this trend predicted to continue. Exposure to extreme heat causes labor supply declines, but studies to quantify the economic effects from future climate changes are limited. In this study, we adopt two different exposure-response functions relating extreme heat to the loss of labor working minutes or labor productivity. We estimate that temperature differences between 2006 and 2016 relative to 1980–1990 led to labor losses of ~$1.7 billion annually in the USA. Under the high emissions RCP8.5 scenario, approximately 1–1.8 billion workforce hours will be lost annually in the 2050s, and 1.5–4.4 billion hours will be lost by the 2100s, depending on the exposure-response function used. The lost hours lead to an estimated $51–119 billion in losses by the 2100s, without considering future climate adaptation, demographic, employment, wage structure, or economic changes. Whereas 2006–2016 losses correspond to 0.07% of the 2016 GDP, the 2100s losses rise roughly fourfold to 0.3%, which are mainly caused by the increases of extreme heat conditions with population growth a secondary factor. With the climate change mitigation strategies of the RCP4.5 scenario, 600–2600 million hours of lost labor per year could be avoided in the 2100s, saving $20–78 billion depending on the chosen exposure-response function. We also evaluated the effect of decarbonizing the energy sector in a manner consistent with the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement, finding that these lead to ~77 million avoided lost work hours worth ~$2.5 billion annually by the 2050s with global collaboration but insignificant impacts with US action alone. Though uncertainties and limitations exist in the study, we find that extreme heat will cause large economic losses to US businesses, especially in southern states (from California to Florida), though widespread climate change mitigation has the potential to substantially reduce these losses. We find that uncertainties among the exposure-response functions used to derive the economic effects of extreme heat on labor are much larger than those from the climate models. Previous studies using only one exposure-response function may exhibit substantial biases and likely underestimate uncertainties associated with the effect of climate changes on labor.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuqiang Zhang & Drew T. Shindell, 2021. "Costs from labor losses due to extreme heat in the USA attributable to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-18, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:164:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03014-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03014-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-03014-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-021-03014-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2014. "Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-26.
    2. Drew T. Shindell & Yunha Lee & Greg Faluvegi, 2016. "Climate and health impacts of US emissions reductions consistent with 2 °C," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 503-507, May.
    3. Clara Deser & Reto Knutti & Susan Solomon & Adam S. Phillips, 2012. "Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(11), pages 775-779, November.
    4. Nina Knittel & Martin W. Jury & Birgit Bednar-Friedl & Gabriel Bachner & Andrea K. Steiner, 2020. "A global analysis of heat-related labour productivity losses under climate change—implications for Germany’s foreign trade," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 251-269, May.
    5. Jeremy Martinich & Allison Crimmins, 2019. "Climate damages and adaptation potential across diverse sectors of the United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 397-404, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Clara Kögel, 2022. "The impact of air pollution on labour productivity in France," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 22020, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Luke A. Parsons & Drew Shindell & Michelle Tigchelaar & Yuqiang Zhang & June T. Spector, 2021. "Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Cheng He & Yuqiang Zhang & Alexandra Schneider & Renjie Chen & Yan Zhang & Weichun Ma & Patrick L. Kinney & Haidong Kan, 2022. "The inequality labor loss risk from future urban warming and adaptation strategies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Eszter Baranyai & Ádám Banai, 2022. "Heat projections and mortgage characteristics: evidence from the USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Mengzhen Zhao & Jason Kai Wei Lee & Tord Kjellstrom & Wenjia Cai, 2021. "Assessment of the economic impact of heat-related labor productivity loss: a systematic review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-16, July.
    6. Lucie Adélaïde & Olivier Chanel & Mathilde Pascal, 2022. "Health effects from heat waves in France: an economic evaluation," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(1), pages 119-131, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Osberghaus, Daniel & Schenker, Oliver, 2022. "International trade and the transmission of temperature shocks," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-035, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Gosling, Simon & Zaherpour, Jamal & Szewczyk, Wojtek, 2019. "Assessment of global climate change impacts on labour productivity," Conference papers 333068, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    4. Xi Chen & Chih Ming Tan & Xiaobo Zhang & Xin Zhang, 2020. "The effects of prenatal exposure to temperature extremes on birth outcomes: the case of China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1263-1302, October.
    5. Nicholas Apergis & Alexandros Gabrielsen & Lee Smales, 2016. "(Unusual) weather and stock returns—I am not in the mood for mood: further evidence from international markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(1), pages 63-94, February.
    6. Zhang, Shaohui & Guo, Qinxin & Smyth, Russell & Yao, Yao, 2022. "Extreme temperatures and residential electricity consumption: Evidence from Chinese households," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    7. Joshua Graff Zivin & Solomon M. Hsiang & Matthew Neidell, 2018. "Temperature and Human Capital in the Short and Long Run," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 77-105.
    8. Mariano J. Rabassa & Mariana Conte Grand & Christian M. García-Witulski, 2021. "Heat warnings and avoidance behavior: evidence from a bike-sharing system," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 23(1), pages 1-28, January.
    9. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2012. "The Impact of Pollution on Worker Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3652-3673, December.
    10. Gordon H. Hanson, 2010. "Why Isn't Mexico Rich?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 987-1004, December.
    11. Stefano Bosi & David Desmarchelier & Lionel Ragot, 2015. "Pollution effects on labor supply and growth," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 11(4), pages 371-388, December.
    12. Nguyen, Ha Trong & Christian, Hayley & Le, Huong Thu & Connelly, Luke & Zubrick, Stephen R. & Mitrou, Francis, 2021. "The impact of weather on time allocation to physical activity and sleep of child-parent dyads," GLO Discussion Paper Series 886, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    13. Chan, Nathan & Wichman, Casey, 2017. "The Effects of Climate on Leisure Demand: Evidence from North America," RFF Working Paper Series 17-20, Resources for the Future.
    14. Nicholas A. Mailloux & Colleen P. Henegan & Dorothy Lsoto & Kristen P. Patterson & Paul C. West & Jonathan A. Foley & Jonathan A. Patz, 2021. "Climate Solutions Double as Health Interventions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-15, December.
    15. Desbureaux, Sébastien & Rodella, Aude-Sophie, 2019. "Drought in the city: The economic impact of water scarcity in Latin American metropolitan areas," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 13-27.
    16. Thiede, Brian C. & Robinson, Abbie & Gray, Clark, 2022. "Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Integrated Census and Survey Microdata," SocArXiv hxv35, Center for Open Science.
    17. Park, Jisung & Bangalore, Mook & Hallegatte, Stephane & Sandhoefner, Evan, 2018. "Households and heat stress: estimating the distributional consequences of climate change," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 349-368, June.
    18. Cosaert, Sam & Nieto Castro, Adrian & Tatsiramos, Konstantinos, 2023. "Temperature and the Timing of Work," IZA Discussion Papers 16480, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Graff Zivin, Joshua & Song, Yingquan & Tang, Qu & Zhang, Peng, 2020. "Temperature and high-stakes cognitive performance: Evidence from the national college entrance examination in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    20. Solomon Hsiang & Paulina Oliva & Reed Walker, 2019. "The Distribution of Environmental Damages," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(1), pages 83-103.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:164:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03014-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.