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Climate damages and adaptation potential across diverse sectors of the United States

Author

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  • Jeremy Martinich

    (United States Environmental Protection Agency)

  • Allison Crimmins

    (United States Environmental Protection Agency)

Abstract

There is a growing capability to project the impacts and economic effects of climate change across multiple sectors. This information is needed to inform decisions regarding the diversity and magnitude of future climate impacts and explore how mitigation and adaptation actions might affect these risks. Here, we summarize results from sectoral impact models applied within a consistent modelling framework to project how climate change will affect 22 impact sectors of the United States, including effects on human health, infrastructure and agriculture. The results show complex patterns of projected changes across the country, with damages in some sectors (for example, labour, extreme temperature mortality and coastal property) estimated to range in the hundreds of billions of US dollars annually by the end of the century under high emissions. Inclusion of a large number of sectors shows that there are no regions that escape some mix of adverse impacts. Lower emissions, and adaptation in relevant sectors, would result in substantial economic benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Martinich & Allison Crimmins, 2019. "Climate damages and adaptation potential across diverse sectors of the United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 397-404, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0444-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0444-6
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Zapata, 2023. "Weather Disasters, Material Losses and Income Inequality: Evidence from a Tropical, Middle-Income Country," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 231-251, July.
    2. Chae Yeon Park & Dong Kun Lee & Jung Hee Hyun, 2019. "The Effects of Extreme Heat Adaptation Strategies under Different Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios in Seoul, Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-13, July.
    3. Yuqiang Zhang & Drew T. Shindell, 2021. "Costs from labor losses due to extreme heat in the USA attributable to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Meng Guo & Shukai Cai, 2022. "Impact of Green Innovation Efficiency on Carbon Peak: Carbon Neutralization under Environmental Governance Constraints," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-18, August.
    5. Chen, Hao & Liu, Simin & Liu, Qiufeng & Shi, Xueli & Wei, Wendong & Han, Rong & Küfeoğlu, Sinan, 2021. "Estimating the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. James E. Neumann & Paul Chinowsky & Jacob Helman & Margaret Black & Charles Fant & Kenneth Strzepek & Jeremy Martinich, 2021. "Climate effects on US infrastructure: the economics of adaptation for rail, roads, and coastal development," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-23, August.
    7. Romit Maulik & Junghwa Choi & Wesley Wehde & Prasanna Balaprakash, 2020. "Determining feature importance for actionable climate change mitigation policies," Papers 2003.10234, arXiv.org.
    8. Natalie Kyung Won Kim & Sera Choi & Taejin Jung & Sohee Park, 2023. "How does demand uncertainty from climate change exposure affect the firms' cost structures? Examining the real effects of climate change on the firms' operational decisions," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(6), pages 2969-2989, November.
    9. Shuaifeng Song & Xiaodong Yan, 2021. "Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Cooling Events in Winter over China and Their Relationship with Arctic Oscillation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-11, October.
    10. Francesco Lamperti & Valentina Bosetti & Andrea Roventini & Massimo Tavoni, 2019. "The public costs of climate-induced financial instability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 829-833, November.
    11. Wojtek Szewczyk & Luc Feyen & Anca Matei & Juan Carlos Ciscar & Eamonn Mulholland & Antonio Soria, 2020. "Economic analysis of selected climate impacts. JRC PESETA IV project –Task 14," JRC Research Reports JRC120452, Joint Research Centre.
    12. Gosling, Simon & Zaherpour, Jamal & Szewczyk, Wojtek, 2019. "Assessment of global climate change impacts on labour productivity," Conference papers 333068, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Liao, Hua & Ye, Huiying, 2023. "Endogenous economic structure, climate change, and the optimal abatement path," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 417-429.
    14. Lindley, Sarah & Albeke, Shannon & Viers, Joshua & Parsons, George & Johnston, Robert & Newbold, Stephen C., 2022. "Valuing Satellite Data for Harmful Algal Bloom Early Warning Systems," RFF Working Paper Series 22-23, Resources for the Future.
    15. Marcus C. Sarofim & Jeremy Martinich & James E. Neumann & Jacqueline Willwerth & Zoe Kerrich & Michael Kolian & Charles Fant & Corinne Hartin, 2021. "A temperature binning approach for multi-sector climate impact analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-18, March.
    16. Fanny Groundstroem & Sirkku Juhola, 2021. "Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 1-48, October.
    17. Ivan Petkov, 2023. "Public Investment in Hazard Mitigation: Effectiveness and the Role of Community Diversity," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 33-92, March.
    18. Oikonomou, Konstantinos & Tarroja, Brian & Kern, Jordan & Voisin, Nathalie, 2022. "Core process representation in power system operational models: Gaps, challenges, and opportunities for multisector dynamics research," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    19. Na Huang & Jialin Wang & Yu Song & Yuying Pan & Guolin Han & Ziyuan Zhang & Shangqian Ma & Guofeng Sun & Cong Liu & Zhihua Pan, 2022. "The adaptation mechanism based on an integrated vulnerability assessment of potato production to climate change in Inner Mongolia, China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 1-19, March.

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