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Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate

Author

Listed:
  • Clara Deser

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Reto Knutti

    (ETH Zürich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science)

  • Susan Solomon

    (Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Adam S. Phillips

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

As climate models improve, decision-makers' expectations for accurate climate predictions are growing. Natural climate variability, however, limits climate predictability and hampers the ability to guide adaptation in many regions such as North America. Scientists, policymakers and the public need to improve communication and avoid raising expectations for accurate regional predictions everywhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Clara Deser & Reto Knutti & Susan Solomon & Adam S. Phillips, 2012. "Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(11), pages 775-779, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:2:y:2012:i:11:d:10.1038_nclimate1562
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1562
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    1. Chelsea L. Parker & Priscilla A. Mooney & Melinda A. Webster & Linette N. Boisvert, 2022. "The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Yuqiang Zhang & Drew T. Shindell, 2021. "Costs from labor losses due to extreme heat in the USA attributable to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Koo, Kyung Ah & Park, Seon Uk & Kong, Woo-Seok & Hong, Seungbum & Jang, Inyoung & Seo, Changwan, 2017. "Potential climate change effects on tree distributions in the Korean Peninsula: Understanding model & climate uncertainties," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 17-27.
    4. Franzke, Christian L.E., 2021. "Towards the development of economic damage functions for weather and climate extremes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    5. Emanuele Bevacqua & Laura Suarez-Gutierrez & Aglaé Jézéquel & Flavio Lehner & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou & Jakob Zscheischler, 2023. "Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Chenyao Yang & Helder Fraga & Wim Ieperen & Henrique Trindade & João A. Santos, 2019. "Effects of climate change and adaptation options on winter wheat yield under rainfed Mediterranean conditions in southern Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 159-178, May.
    7. Charles D. Kolstad & Frances C. Moore, 2020. "Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Using Weather Observations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24.
    8. Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi & Mohammad Reza Najafi & Harsimrenjit Singh & Markus Schnorbus, 2021. "Spatial and temporal changes in climate extremes over northwestern North America: the influence of internal climate variability and external forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-19, March.
    9. Stephan Harrison & Tim Mighall & David A. Stainforth & Philip Allen & Mark Macklin & Edward Anderson & Jasper Knight & Dmitri Mauquoy & David Passmore & Brice Rea & Matteo Spagnolo & Sarah Shannon, 2019. "Uncertainty in geomorphological responses to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 69-86, September.
    10. Michael R. Grose & James S. Risbey & Penny H. Whetton, 2017. "Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 307-322, January.
    11. Wenhao Dong & Yi Ming & Yi Deng & Zhaoyi Shen, 2024. "Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Keane, Robert E. & McKenzie, Donald & Falk, Donald A. & Smithwick, Erica A.H. & Miller, Carol & Kellogg, Lara-Karena B., 2015. "Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 309, pages 33-47.
    13. Ambarish V. Karmalkar & Jeanne M. Thibeault & Alexander M. Bryan & Anji Seth, 2019. "Identifying credible and diverse GCMs for regional climate change studies—case study: Northeastern United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 367-386, June.
    14. S. Camici & L. Brocca & T. Moramarco, 2017. "Accuracy versus variability of climate projections for flood assessment in central Italy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 273-286, March.
    15. Shuai-Lei Yao & Jing-Jia Luo & Gang Huang, 2016. "Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-12, March.
    16. Lu Dong & L. Ruby Leung & Fengfei Song & Jian Lu, 2021. "Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Cha Zhao & François Brissette, 2022. "Impacts of large-scale oscillations on climate variability over North America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-21, July.
    18. Christopher W. Callahan & Justin S. Mankin, 2022. "National attribution of historical climate damages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    19. Karen A. McKinnon & Andrew Poppick, 2020. "Estimating Changes in the Observed Relationship Between Humidity and Temperature Using Noncrossing Quantile Smoothing Splines," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 25(3), pages 292-314, September.
    20. Phong Nguyen Thanh & Thinh Le Van & Tuan Tran Minh & Tuyen Huynh Ngoc & Worapong Lohpaisankrit & Quoc Bao Pham & Alexandre S. Gagnon & Proloy Deb & Nhat Truong Pham & Duong Tran Anh & Vuong Nguyen Din, 2023. "Adapting to Climate-Change-Induced Drought Stress to Improve Water Management in Southeast Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-27, June.
    21. Donald J. Wuebbles & Aman Chitkara & Clay Matheny, 2014. "Potential effects of climate change on global security," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 564-577, December.
    22. Frigg, Roman & Smith, Leonard A. & Stainforth, David A., 2015. "An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61635, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Zhaomin Ding & Panmao Zhai & Renguang Wu, 2024. "Impacts of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability on the rapid warming over the Tibetan Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-22, January.
    24. Kao, Shih-Chieh & Sale, Michael J. & Ashfaq, Moetasim & Uria Martinez, Rocio & Kaiser, Dale P. & Wei, Yaxing & Diffenbaugh, Noah S., 2015. "Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 239-250.
    25. Ramón Elía & Sébastien Biner & Anne Frigon & Hélène Côté, 2014. "Timescales associated with climate change and their relevance in adaptation strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 93-106, September.

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