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Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world

Author

Listed:
  • Luke A. Parsons

    (Duke University)

  • Drew Shindell

    (Duke University)

  • Michelle Tigchelaar

    (Stanford University)

  • Yuqiang Zhang

    (Duke University
    University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

  • June T. Spector

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

Working in hot and potentially humid conditions creates health and well-being risks that will increase as the planet warms. It has been proposed that workers could adapt to increasing temperatures by moving labor from midday to cooler hours. Here, we use reanalysis data to show that in the current climate approximately 30% of global heavy labor losses in the workday could be recovered by moving labor from the hottest hours of the day. However, we show that this particular workshift adaptation potential is lost at a rate of about 2% per degree of global warming as early morning heat exposure rises to unsafe levels for continuous work, with worker productivity losses accelerating under higher warming levels. These findings emphasize the importance of finding alternative adaptation mechanisms to keep workers safe, as well as the importance of limiting global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Luke A. Parsons & Drew Shindell & Michelle Tigchelaar & Yuqiang Zhang & June T. Spector, 2021. "Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-27328-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27328-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Park, R. Jisung & Pankratz, Nora & Behrer, A. Patrick, 2021. "Temperature, Workplace Safety, and Labor Market Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 14560, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. John P. Dunne & Ronald J. Stouffer & Jasmin G. John, 2013. "Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 563-566, June.
    3. Jennifer K. Vanos & Jane W. Baldwin & Ollie Jay & Kristie L. Ebi, 2020. "Simplicity lacks robustness when projecting heat-health outcomes in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-5, December.
    4. Yuqiang Zhang & Drew T. Shindell, 2021. "Costs from labor losses due to extreme heat in the USA attributable to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Camilo Mora & Bénédicte Dousset & Iain R. Caldwell & Farrah E. Powell & Rollan C. Geronimo & Coral R. Bielecki & Chelsie W. W. Counsell & Bonnie S. Dietrich & Emily T. Johnston & Leo V. Louis & Matthe, 2017. "Global risk of deadly heat," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 501-506, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucas R. Vargas Zeppetello & Susan C. Cook-Patton & Luke A. Parsons & Nicholas H. Wolff & Timm Kroeger & David S. Battisti & Joseph Bettles & June T. Spector & Arjun Balakumar & Yuta J. Masuda, 2022. "Consistent cooling benefits of silvopasture in the tropics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Conte Grand Mariana & Soria Matias, 2023. "Economic Costs Of Heat Stress Induced Reductions In Worker Productivity Due To Climate Change In A Developing Country," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4636, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.

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