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Modelling the climate, water and socio-economic drivers of farmer exit in the Murray-Darling Basin

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  • Sarah Ann Wheeler

    (University of Adelaide)

  • Ying Xu

    (University of Adelaide)

  • Alec Zuo

    (University of Adelaide)

Abstract

Absolute farm numbers all over the world have been decreasing over time, and in many countries, this is a source of concern for rural communities. In particular, the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia has faced considerable change in the form of increased temperatures and drought severity, reduced irrigation water diversions, declining real agricultural commodity prices, and declining rural community services. This study applies spatial regression modelling at the regional level to assess the impact of weather, economic, and water factors on net farmer number changes over a 20-year period from 1991 to 2011, with climate risk measured using data from 1961 onwards. Our analysis suggests that the direct drivers of farmer exit in local areas were climatic (e.g. increases in maximum temperature and increased drought risk (through decreased long-term precipitation skewness and increased long-term precipitation kurtosis)) and socio-economic (e.g. decreases in commodity output prices, increased urbanisation and higher unemployment). Contrary to the current narrative, changes in irrigation water diversions and water trade movements had no significant impact on MDB farmer exit.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Ann Wheeler & Ying Xu & Alec Zuo, 2020. "Modelling the climate, water and socio-economic drivers of farmer exit in the Murray-Darling Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 551-574, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:158:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02601-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02601-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Juliane Haensch & Sarah Ann Wheeler & Alec Zuo, 2021. "Explaining permanent and temporary water market trade patterns within local areas in the southern Murray–Darling Basin," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(2), pages 318-348, April.
    2. Sarah Ann Wheeler & Céline Nauges & Alec Zuo, 2021. "How stable are Australian farmers’ climate change risk perceptions? New evidence of the feedback loop between risk perceptions and behaviour," Post-Print hal-04670841, HAL.
    3. Ojo, T.O. & Ogundeji, A.A. & Belle, J.A., 2021. "Climate change perception and impact of on-farm demonstration on intensity of adoption of adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in South Africa," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    4. Ojo, Temitope & Ogundeji, Abiodun A. & Belle, Johannes A. & Demont, Matty, 2021. "A Three-Stage Approach of Understanding Climate Change Perception and Adaptation Strategies Among Smallholder Farmers in South Africa," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315854, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Zuo, Alec & Wheeler, Sarah Ann & Xu, Ying, 2022. "Expanders, diversifiers or downsizers? Identifying clusters of irrigators’ water trade and farm management strategies in Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    6. Berna Türkekul & Canan Fisun Abay, 2024. "Understanding Why Farmers Leave: Validating Key Indicators for Farm Exit in İzmir, Türkiye," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-20, July.

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