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Abandonment of milk production under uncertainty and inefficiency: the case of western German Farms

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  • Simone Pieralli
  • Silke Hüttel
  • Martin Odening

Abstract

This article examines the impact of technical efficiency on farmers’ irreversible optimal exit timing in a real options model. The model suggests that both higher efficiency and higher output price volatility make the farm more reluctant to irreversibly exit production. We test these hypotheses using farm panel data from 1997 to 2011 for milk producers in western Germany. Our findings confirm that ceasing operations in the dairy branch correlates with low efficiency of milk production and higher efficiency in other branches. A mild deviation from optimality, however, does not trigger immediate abandonment. Moreover, we find an attenuated impact of efficiency under more volatile market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Pieralli & Silke Hüttel & Martin Odening, 2017. "Abandonment of milk production under uncertainty and inefficiency: the case of western German Farms," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(3), pages 425-454.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:44:y:2017:i:3:p:425-454.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/jbx001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Steele C. West & Amin W. Mugera & Ross S. Kingwell, 2024. "The impact of repayment obligations arising as a by‐product of input use on partial inefficiency: Evidence from Western Australian farm businesses," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 68(3), pages 678-700, July.
    2. Sarah Ann Wheeler & Ying Xu & Alec Zuo, 2020. "Modelling the climate, water and socio-economic drivers of farmer exit in the Murray-Darling Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 551-574, February.
    3. Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2022. "Farmland sales under returns and price uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    4. Iordanis Parikoglou & Grigorios Emvalomatis & Fiona Thorne, 2022. "Precision livestock agriculture and productive efficiency: The case of milk recording in Ireland," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 109-120, November.
    5. Fertő, Imre & Bojnec, Štefan & Iwasaki, Ichiro & Shida, Yoshisada, 2024. "Why do corporate farms survive in Central and Eastern Europe?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    6. Roman Neyter & Oleg Nivievskyi, 2023. "Effect of subsidies on farms' exit decision," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 941-959, October.
    7. West, Steele, 2021. "The Estimation of Farm Business Inefficiency in the Presence of Debt Repayment," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315048, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Fabian Frick & Johannes Sauer, 2021. "Technological Change in Dairy Farming with Increased Price Volatility," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 564-588, June.
    9. Schulte, Hinrich D. & Armbrecht, Linda & Bürger, Rasmus & Gauly, Matthias & Musshoff, Oliver & Hüttel, Silke, 2018. "Let the cows graze: An empirical investigation on the trade-off between efficiency and farm animal welfare in milk production," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 375-385.
    10. Orozco, Richard & Meyer-Jürshof, Marie & Vergara-Rodríguez, Karla & Václavík, Tomáš & Sietz, Diana, 2024. "Dynamic archetypes of agricultural land systems in Germany from 1992 to 2019," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Theodoros Skevas & Wyatt Thompson & Scott Brown & Victor E. Cabrera, 2021. "Milk Income over Feed Cost Margin, Margin Protection Program, and Farm Finances for a Sample of Wisconsin Dairies in 2000–2017," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 1638-1657, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    efficiency; market exit; real options; dairy production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

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