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Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Allyson Williams
  • Neil White
  • Shahbaz Mushtaq
  • Geoff Cockfield
  • Brendan Power
  • Louis Kouadio

Abstract

The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO 2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO 2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO 2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Allyson Williams & Neil White & Shahbaz Mushtaq & Geoff Cockfield & Brendan Power & Louis Kouadio, 2015. "Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 183-196, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:129:y:2015:i:1:p:183-196
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1305-y
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chen, Xiaoping & Qi, Zhiming & Gui, Dongwei & Gu, Zhe & Ma, Liwang & Zeng, Fanjiang & Li, Lanhai, 2019. "Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 231-241.
    3. Li, Na & Yao, Ning & Li, Yi & Chen, Junqing & Liu, Deli & Biswas, Asim & Li, Linchao & Wang, Tianxue & Chen, Xinguo, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the possible impact of climate change on global cotton yield based on crop simulation approaches," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Adhikari, Pradip & Ale, Srinivasulu & Bordovsky, James P. & Thorp, Kelly R. & Modala, Naga R. & Rajan, Nithya & Barnes, Edward M., 2016. "Simulating future climate change impacts on seed cotton yield in the Texas High Plains using the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 164(P2), pages 317-330.
    5. Sarah Ann Wheeler & Ying Xu & Alec Zuo, 2020. "Modelling the climate, water and socio-economic drivers of farmer exit in the Murray-Darling Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 551-574, February.
    6. Chen, Yong & Marek, Gary W. & Marek, Thomas H. & Moorhead, Jerry E. & Heflin, Kevin R. & Brauer, David K. & Gowda, Prasanna H. & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2019. "Simulating the impacts of climate change on hydrology and crop production in the Northern High Plains of Texas using an improved SWAT model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 13-24.
    7. Williams, Allyson & Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Kouadio, Louis & Power, Brendan & Marcussen, Torben & McRae, David & Cockfield, Geoff, 2018. "An investigation of farm-scale adaptation options for cotton production in the face of future climate change and water allocation policies in southern Queensland, Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 124-132.
    8. Desheng Wang & Chengkun Wang & Lichao Xu & Tiecheng Bai & Guozheng Yang, 2022. "Simulating Growth and Evaluating the Regional Adaptability of Cotton Fields with Non-Film Mulching in Xinjiang," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-20, June.
    9. Chen, Yong & Ale, Srinivasulu & Rajan, Nithya & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2017. "Modeling the effects of land use change from cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) to perennial bioenergy grasses on watershed hydrology and water quality under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 198-208.
    10. Ghahramani, Afshin & Bowran, David, 2018. "Transformative and systemic climate change adaptations in mixed crop-livestock farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 236-251.

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