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Uncertainty in geomorphological responses to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Stephan Harrison

    (Exeter University)

  • Tim Mighall

    (University of Aberdeen University)

  • David A. Stainforth

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Philip Allen

    (Frostburg State University)

  • Mark Macklin

    (University of Lincoln)

  • Edward Anderson

    (Harvard Avenue)

  • Jasper Knight

    (University of the Witwatersrand)

  • Dmitri Mauquoy

    (University of Aberdeen University)

  • David Passmore

    (University of Toronto Mississauga)

  • Brice Rea

    (University of Aberdeen University)

  • Matteo Spagnolo

    (University of Aberdeen University)

  • Sarah Shannon

    (University of Bristol)

Abstract

Successful adaptation to climate change at regional scales can often depend on understanding the nature of geomorphological responses to climate change at those scales. Here we use evidence from landscapes which are known to be environmentally sensitive to show that geomorphological change in response to shifts in climate can be highly nonlinear. Our study sites are two mountain massifs on the western coast of Ireland. Both sites have similar geological and Pleistocene glacial histories and are similar topographically, geomorphologically and in their climate histories. We show that despite these similarities their response to late Holocene, climate change has differed. Both massifs have responded to short-term climate changes over the last 4500 years that are considered to have been uniform across the region, but these climate changes have resulted in highly differentiated and nonlinear landscape responses. We argue this reflects nonlinearity in the forcing–response processes at such scales and suggests that current approaches to modelling the response of such systems to future climate change using numerical climate models may not accurately capture the landscape response. We end by discussing some of the implications for obtaining decision-relevant predictions of landscape responses to climatic forcing and for climate change adaptation and planning, using regional climate models.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Harrison & Tim Mighall & David A. Stainforth & Philip Allen & Mark Macklin & Edward Anderson & Jasper Knight & Dmitri Mauquoy & David Passmore & Brice Rea & Matteo Spagnolo & Sarah Shannon, 2019. "Uncertainty in geomorphological responses to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 69-86, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:156:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02520-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02520-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Maslin & Patrick Austin, 2012. "Climate models at their limit?," Nature, Nature, vol. 486(7402), pages 183-184, June.
    2. Michael Oppenheimer & Christopher M. Little & Roger M. Cooke, 2016. "Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 445-451, May.
    3. Clara Deser & Reto Knutti & Susan Solomon & Adam S. Phillips, 2012. "Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(11), pages 775-779, November.
    4. David A Stainforth & Leonard A. Smith, 2012. "Clarify the limits of climate models," Nature, Nature, vol. 489(7415), pages 208-208, September.
    5. Jasper Knight & Stephan Harrison, 2013. "The impacts of climate change on terrestrial Earth surface systems," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 24-29, January.
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