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The future of climate modeling

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  • Joel Katzav
  • Wendy Parker

Abstract

Recently a number of scientists have proposed substantial changes to the practice of climate modeling, though they disagree over what those changes should be. We provide an overview and critical examination of three leading proposals: the unified approach, the hierarchy approach and the pluralist approach. The unified approach calls for an accelerated development of high-resolution models within a seamless prediction framework. The hierarchy approach calls for more attention to the development and systematic study of hierarchies of related models, with the aim of advancing understanding. The pluralist approach calls for greater diversity in modeling efforts, including, on some of its variants, more attention to empirical modeling. After identifying some of the scientific and institutional challenges faced by these proposals, we consider their expected gains and costs, relative to a business-as-usual modeling scenario. We find the proposals to be complementary, having valuable synergies. But since resource limitations make it unlikely that all three will be pursued, we offer some reflections on more limited changes in climate modeling that seem well within reach and that can be expected to yield substantial benefits. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Joel Katzav & Wendy Parker, 2015. "The future of climate modeling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 475-487, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:132:y:2015:i:4:p:475-487
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1435-x
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    1. Suckling, Emma B. & Smith, Leonard A., 2013. "An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 55142, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Christian Jakob, 2014. "Going back to basics," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1042-1045, December.
    3. Paul N. Edwards, 2011. "History of climate modeling," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 128-139, January.
    4. Jasper Knight & Stephan Harrison, 2013. "The impacts of climate change on terrestrial Earth surface systems," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 24-29, January.
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    1. Joel Katzav & Erica L. Thompson & James Risbey & David A. Stainforth & Seamus Bradley & Mathias Frisch, 2021. "On the appropriate and inappropriate uses of probability distributions in climate projections and some alternatives," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-20, November.
    2. Ludovic Touzé‐Peiffer & Anouk Barberousse & Hervé Le Treut, 2020. "The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: History, uses, and structural effects on climate research," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), July.

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