IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v126y2014i1p93-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Timescales associated with climate change and their relevance in adaptation strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Ramón Elía
  • Sébastien Biner
  • Anne Frigon
  • Hélène Côté

Abstract

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that induce changes in the Earth’s climate affect particular variables and locations differently. A key part of this difference is the timescale at which this change takes place, which will eventually have important consequences for adaptation requirements. This idea of timescale associated with climate change has been used several times in the past to estimate the urgency of adaptation in particular regions. The definition of climate-change timescale is, however, not unique. For example, we can think of it in terms of an expected trend (e.g. in temperature) reaching a given threshold, or think of it in terms of the time it may take this trend to become statistically significant. We may also wonder about the validity of this speculation given that, due to natural variability, the expected trend may in fact not be realized. In this article we explore alternative ways of defining the timescale of climate-change, compare their properties, and illustrate them with an example for the case of projected surface temperature over North America. It is shown that these timescales are analytically related but may differ substantially in magnitude under certain conditions. In particular, it is shown that climate change impact on vulnerable systems may arrive before statistical detection of the variable’s trend takes place. This fact may have implications on how climate change impacts are seen by those with diverging interests. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Ramón Elía & Sébastien Biner & Anne Frigon & Hélène Côté, 2014. "Timescales associated with climate change and their relevance in adaptation strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 93-106, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:126:y:2014:i:1:p:93-106
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1209-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-014-1209-x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-014-1209-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clara Deser & Reto Knutti & Susan Solomon & Adam S. Phillips, 2012. "Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(11), pages 775-779, November.
    2. Scott R. Loarie & Philip B. Duffy & Healy Hamilton & Gregory P. Asner & Christopher B. Field & David D. Ackerly, 2009. "The velocity of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 462(7276), pages 1052-1055, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yann Chavaillaz & Sylvie Joussaume & Amaury Dehecq & Pascale Braconnot & Robert Vautard, 2016. "Investigating the pace of temperature change and its implications over the twenty-first century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 187-200, July.
    2. Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse & Marco Braun, 2019. "Impact of internal variability on climate change for the upcoming decades: analysis of the CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE large ensembles," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 299-314, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla & Nellie Elguindi & Filippo Giorgi & Dominik Wisser, 2016. "Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 241-253, January.
    2. Mouhamadou Sylla & Nellie Elguindi & Filippo Giorgi & Dominik Wisser, 2016. "Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 241-253, January.
    3. Meineri, Eric & Dahlberg, C. Johan & Hylander, Kristoffer, 2015. "Using Gaussian Bayesian Networks to disentangle direct and indirect associations between landscape physiography, environmental variables and species distribution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 127-136.
    4. Bruno R Ribeiro & Lilian P Sales & Paulo De Marco Jr. & Rafael Loyola, 2016. "Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, November.
    5. Michael R. Grose & James S. Risbey & Penny H. Whetton, 2017. "Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 307-322, January.
    6. S. Camici & L. Brocca & T. Moramarco, 2017. "Accuracy versus variability of climate projections for flood assessment in central Italy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 273-286, March.
    7. Disha Sachan & Pankaj Kumar & Md. Saquib Saharwardi, 2022. "Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-19, August.
    8. Christopher W. Callahan & Justin S. Mankin, 2022. "National attribution of historical climate damages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    9. Avery P. Hill & Christopher B. Field, 2021. "Forest fires and climate-induced tree range shifts in the western US," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Chenyao Yang & Helder Fraga & Wim Ieperen & Henrique Trindade & João A. Santos, 2019. "Effects of climate change and adaptation options on winter wheat yield under rainfed Mediterranean conditions in southern Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 159-178, May.
    11. Antoine Adde & Diana Stralberg & Travis Logan & Christine Lepage & Steven Cumming & Marcel Darveau, 2020. "Projected effects of climate change on the distribution and abundance of breeding waterfowl in Eastern Canada," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2339-2358, October.
    12. Katherine Dagon & Daniel P. Schrag, 2019. "Quantifying the effects of solar geoengineering on vegetation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 235-251, March.
    13. Luke Shoo & Ary Hoffmann & Stephen Garnett & Robert Pressey & Yvette Williams & Martin Taylor & Lorena Falconi & Colin Yates & John Scott & Diogo Alagador & Stephen Williams, 2013. "Making decisions to conserve species under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 239-246, July.
    14. Charles D. Kolstad & Frances C. Moore, 2020. "Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Using Weather Observations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24.
    15. Katherine A. Zeller & Rebecca Lewison & Robert J. Fletcher & Mirela G. Tulbure & Megan K. Jennings, 2020. "Understanding the Importance of Dynamic Landscape Connectivity," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-15, August.
    16. Wenhao Dong & Yi Ming & Yi Deng & Zhaoyi Shen, 2024. "Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Shuai-Lei Yao & Jing-Jia Luo & Gang Huang, 2016. "Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-12, March.
    18. Lu Dong & L. Ruby Leung & Fengfei Song & Jian Lu, 2021. "Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    19. Zhang, Pengyi & Liang, Yu & Liu, Bo & Ma, Tianxiao & Wu, Mia M., 2023. "A coupled modelling framework for predicting tree species’ altitudinal migration velocity in montane forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 484(C).
    20. Patrick J. Comer & Jon C. Hak & Marion S. Reid & Stephanie L. Auer & Keith A. Schulz & Healy H. Hamilton & Regan L. Smyth & Matthew M. Kling, 2019. "Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index Applied to Major Vegetation Types of the Western Interior United States," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-27, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:126:y:2014:i:1:p:93-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.