IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v147y2018i1d10.1007_s10584-017-2118-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Lauren E. Parker

    (University of Idaho)

  • John T. Abatzoglou

    (University of Idaho)

Abstract

Delineating geographic shifts in crop cultivation under future climate conditions provides information for land use and water management planning, and insights to meeting future demand. A suitability modeling approach was used to map the thermal niche of almond cultivation and phenological development across the Western United States (US) through the mid-21st century. The Central Valley of California remains thermally suitable for almond cultivation through the mid-21st century, and opportunities for expansion appear in the Willamette Valley of western Oregon, which is currently limited by insufficient heat accumulation. Modeled almond phenology shows a compression in reproductive development under future climate. By the mid-21st century, almond phenology in the Central Valley showed ~ 2-week delay in chill accumulation and ~ 1- and ~ 2.5-week advance in the timing of bloom and harvest, respectively. Although other climatic and non-climatic restrictions to almond cultivation may exist, these results highlight opportunities for shifts in the geography of high-value cropping systems, which may influence growers’ long-term land use decisions, and shape regional water and agricultural industry discussions regarding climate change adaptation options.

Suggested Citation

  • Lauren E. Parker & John T. Abatzoglou, 2018. "Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 211-224, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:147:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2118-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2118-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-2118-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-017-2118-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Moriondo & G. Jones & B. Bois & C. Dibari & R. Ferrise & G. Trombi & M. Bindi, 2013. "Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 825-839, August.
    2. Machovina, Brian & Feeley, Kenneth J., 2013. "Climate change driven shifts in the extent and location of areas suitable for export banana production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 83-95.
    3. David Lobell & Christopher Field, 2011. "California perennial crops in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 317-333, December.
    4. Richard Seager & Mingfang Ting & Cuihua Li & Naomi Naik & Ben Cook & Jennifer Nakamura & Haibo Liu, 2013. "Projections of declining surface-water availability for the southwestern United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 482-486, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Janet S Prevéy & Lauren E Parker & Constance A Harrington, 2020. "Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Hamzeh Ahmadi & Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari & Mohammad Baaghideh, 2019. "Impacts of climate change on apple tree cultivation areas in Iran," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 91-103, March.
    3. Gardner, A.S. & Gaston, K.J. & Maclean, I.M.D., 2021. "Combining qualitative and quantitative methodology to assess prospects for novel crops in a warming climate," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    4. Alexander Maas & Chloe Wardropper & Gabrielle Roesch-McNally & John Abatzoglou, 2020. "A (mis)alignment of farmer experience and perceptions of climate change in the U.S. inland Pacific Northwest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1011-1029, October.
    5. repec:ags:aaea22:335474 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gardner, A.S. & Maclean, I.M.D. & Gaston, K.J. & Bütikofer, L., 2021. "Forecasting future crop suitability with microclimate data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    7. Gabriel Granco & Haoji He & Brandon Lentz & Jully Voong & Alan Reeve & Exal Vega, 2023. "Mid- and End-of-the-Century Estimation of Agricultural Suitability of California’s Specialty Crops," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Heinz, Malve & Galetti, Valeria & Holzkämper, Annelie, 2024. "How to find alternative crops for climate-resilient regional food production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 2020. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899, May.
    2. Hasibuan, Abdul Muis & Gregg, Daniel & Stringer, Randy, 2022. "Risk preferences, intra-household dynamics and spatial effects on chemical inputs use: Case of small-scale citrus farmers in Indonesia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Cai, Qingyin & Çakır, Metin & Beatty, Timothy & Park, Timothy A., 2022. "Drought and the Specialty Crops Production in California," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322530, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Hrozencik, Aaron & Aillery, Marcel, 2021. "Trends in U.S. Irrigated Agriculture: Increasing Resilience Under Water Supply Scarcity," USDA Miscellaneous 316792, United States Department of Agriculture.
    5. Heiko Paeth & Daniel Schönbein & Luzia Keupp & Daniel Abel & Freddy Bangelesa & Miriam Baumann & Christian Büdel & Christian Hartmann & Christof Kneisel & Konstantin Kobs & Julian Krause & Martin Krec, 2023. "Climate change information tailored to the agricultural sector in Central Europe, exemplified on the region of Lower Franconia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-24, October.
    6. Srinivasan, M.S. & Measures, Richard & Muller, Carla & Neal, Mark & Rajanayaka, Channa & Shankar, Ude & Elley, Graham, 2021. "Comparing the water use metrics of just-in-case, just-in-time and justified irrigation strategies using a scenario-based tool," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    7. Hrozencik, Aaron & Wallander, Steven & Aillery, Marcel, 2021. "Irrigation Organizations: Water Storage and Delivery Infrastructure," Economic Brief 327232, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    8. Pierre Mérel & Matthew Gammans, 2021. "Climate Econometrics: Can the Panel Approach Account for Long‐Run Adaptation?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1207-1238, August.
    9. Bonfante, A. & Alfieri, S.M. & Albrizio, R. & Basile, A. & De Mascellis, R. & Gambuti, A. & Giorio, P. & Langella, G. & Manna, P. & Monaco, E. & Moio, L. & Terribile, F., 2017. "Evaluation of the effects of future climate change on grape quality through a physically based model application: a case study for the Aglianico grapevine in Campania region, Italy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 100-109.
    10. Hamzeh Ahmadi & Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari & Mohammad Baaghideh, 2019. "Impacts of climate change on apple tree cultivation areas in Iran," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 91-103, March.
    11. Lamonaca, Emilia & Seccia, Antonio & Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano, 2023. "Climate cha(lle)nges in global wine production and trade patterns," MPRA Paper 119296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Helen Fillmore & Loretta Singletary, 2021. "Climate data and information needs of indigenous communities on reservation lands: insights from stakeholders in the Southwestern United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-22, December.
    13. Kym Anderson, 2019. "Evolving Varietal and Quality Distinctiveness of Australia’s Wine Regions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 24, pages 599-628, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Ali Sardar Shahraki & Tommaso Caloiero & Ommolbanin Bazrafshan, 2023. "Influence of Climatic Factors on Yields of Pistachio, Mango, and Bananas in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-14, June.
    15. Emile Elias & T. Scott Schrader & John T. Abatzoglou & Darren James & Mike Crimmins & Jeremy Weiss & Albert Rango, 2018. "County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 355-369, June.
    16. Christopher Potter, 2015. "Vegetation cover change in the Upper Kings River basin of the Sierra Nevada detected using Landsat satellite image analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 635-647, August.
    17. Jisang Yu & Gyuhyeong Goh, 2022. "Estimating temperature impacts on perennial crop losses in California: Insights from insurance data," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 1409-1423, September.
    18. Annalisa Marini & Steve McCorriston, 2019. "Weather, Prices and Spillovers," Discussion Papers 1905, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    19. Manners, Rhys & Vandamme, Elke & Adewopo, Julius & Thornton, Philip & Friedmann, Michael & Carpentier, Sebastien & Ezui, Kodjovi Senam & Thiele, Graham, 2021. "Suitability of root, tuber, and banana crops in Central Africa can be favoured under future climates," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    20. Malek, Žiga & Tieskens, Koen F. & Verburg, Peter H., 2019. "Explaining the global spatial distribution of organic crop producers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:147:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2118-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.