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Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change

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  • Lauren E. Parker

    (University of Idaho)

  • John T. Abatzoglou

    (University of Idaho)

Abstract

Delineating geographic shifts in crop cultivation under future climate conditions provides information for land use and water management planning, and insights to meeting future demand. A suitability modeling approach was used to map the thermal niche of almond cultivation and phenological development across the Western United States (US) through the mid-21st century. The Central Valley of California remains thermally suitable for almond cultivation through the mid-21st century, and opportunities for expansion appear in the Willamette Valley of western Oregon, which is currently limited by insufficient heat accumulation. Modeled almond phenology shows a compression in reproductive development under future climate. By the mid-21st century, almond phenology in the Central Valley showed ~ 2-week delay in chill accumulation and ~ 1- and ~ 2.5-week advance in the timing of bloom and harvest, respectively. Although other climatic and non-climatic restrictions to almond cultivation may exist, these results highlight opportunities for shifts in the geography of high-value cropping systems, which may influence growers’ long-term land use decisions, and shape regional water and agricultural industry discussions regarding climate change adaptation options.

Suggested Citation

  • Lauren E. Parker & John T. Abatzoglou, 2018. "Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 211-224, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:147:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2118-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2118-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Moriondo & G. Jones & B. Bois & C. Dibari & R. Ferrise & G. Trombi & M. Bindi, 2013. "Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 825-839, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Janet S Prevéy & Lauren E Parker & Constance A Harrington, 2020. "Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Hamzeh Ahmadi & Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari & Mohammad Baaghideh, 2019. "Impacts of climate change on apple tree cultivation areas in Iran," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 91-103, March.
    3. Gardner, A.S. & Gaston, K.J. & Maclean, I.M.D., 2021. "Combining qualitative and quantitative methodology to assess prospects for novel crops in a warming climate," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    4. Alexander Maas & Chloe Wardropper & Gabrielle Roesch-McNally & John Abatzoglou, 2020. "A (mis)alignment of farmer experience and perceptions of climate change in the U.S. inland Pacific Northwest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1011-1029, October.
    5. repec:ags:aaea22:335474 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gardner, A.S. & Maclean, I.M.D. & Gaston, K.J. & Bütikofer, L., 2021. "Forecasting future crop suitability with microclimate data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    7. Gabriel Granco & Haoji He & Brandon Lentz & Jully Voong & Alan Reeve & Exal Vega, 2023. "Mid- and End-of-the-Century Estimation of Agricultural Suitability of California’s Specialty Crops," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Heinz, Malve & Galetti, Valeria & Holzkämper, Annelie, 2024. "How to find alternative crops for climate-resilient regional food production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

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