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Climate change driven shifts in the extent and location of areas suitable for export banana production

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  • Machovina, Brian
  • Feeley, Kenneth J.

Abstract

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is used to map areas predicted to be suitable for commercial banana production in Central and northwestern South America. Using the downscaled climate projections for 2060 from seven leading global climate models we then predict the geographical shifts in areas suitable for banana production. We repeat this process for conventional and organic banana production. Approximately half of the existing conventional plantations included in the analysis are located in areas predicted to become unsuitable for banana production by 2060. The overall extent of areas suitable for conventional banana cultivation is predicted to decrease by 19%, but all countries are predicted to maintain some suitable areas. The extent of areas suitable for organic banana cultivation is predicted to nearly double due primarily to climatic drying. Several countries (e.g., Colombia and Honduras) are predicted to experience large net decreases in the extent of areas suitable for banana cultivation. Some countries (e.g., Mexico) are predicted to experience large net increases in the extent of suitable areas. The shifts in the location of areas that will be suitable for banana cultivation are predicted to occur mainly within areas outside of protected areas and that are already under agricultural production.

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  • Machovina, Brian & Feeley, Kenneth J., 2013. "Climate change driven shifts in the extent and location of areas suitable for export banana production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 83-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:95:y:2013:i:c:p:83-95
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.08.004
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    3. Annalisa Marini & Steve McCorriston, 2019. "Weather, Prices and Spillovers," Discussion Papers 1905, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    4. Campos, Jean C. & Manrique-Silupú, José & Dorneanu, Bogdan & Ipanaqué, William & Arellano-García, Harvey, 2022. "A smart decision framework for the prediction of thrips incidence in organic banana crops," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    5. Vantyghem, Mathilde & Merckx, Roel & Stevens, Bert & Hood-Nowotny, Rebecca & Swennen, Rony & Dercon, Gerd, 2022. "The potential of stable carbon isotope ratios and leaf temperature as proxies for drought stress in banana under field conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    6. Singh, Kuntal & McClean, Colin J. & Büker, Patrick & Hartley, Sue E. & Hill, Jane K., 2017. "Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 76-84.
    7. Manners, Rhys & Vandamme, Elke & Adewopo, Julius & Thornton, Philip & Friedmann, Michael & Carpentier, Sebastien & Ezui, Kodjovi Senam & Thiele, Graham, 2021. "Suitability of root, tuber, and banana crops in Central Africa can be favoured under future climates," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    8. Yen Pham & Kathryn Reardon-Smith & Shahbaz Mushtaq & Geoff Cockfield, 2019. "The impact of climate change and variability on coffee production: a systematic review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(4), pages 609-630, October.
    9. Hamzeh Ahmadi & Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari & Mohammad Baaghideh, 2019. "Impacts of climate change on apple tree cultivation areas in Iran," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 91-103, March.
    10. Lauren E. Parker & John T. Abatzoglou, 2018. "Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 211-224, March.
    11. Malek, Žiga & Tieskens, Koen F. & Verburg, Peter H., 2019. "Explaining the global spatial distribution of organic crop producers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

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