IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0232537.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species

Author

Listed:
  • Janet S Prevéy
  • Lauren E Parker
  • Constance A Harrington

Abstract

Climate change is shifting both the habitat suitability and the timing of critical biological events, such as flowering and fruiting, for plant species across the globe. Here, we ask how both the distribution and phenology of three food-producing shrubs native to northwestern North America might shift as the climate changes. To address this question, we compared gridded climate data with species location data to identify climate variables that best predicted the current bioclimatic niches of beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), and salal (Gaultheria shallon). We also developed thermal-sum models for the timing of flowering and fruit ripening for these species. We then used multi-model ensemble future climate projections to estimate how species range and phenology may change under future conditions. Modelling efforts showed extreme minimum temperature, climate moisture deficit, and mean summer precipitation were predictive of climatic suitability across all three species. Future bioclimatic niche models project substantial reductions in habitat suitability across the lower elevation and southern portions of the species’ current ranges by the end of the 21st century. Thermal-sum phenology models for these species indicate that flowering and the ripening of fruits and nuts will advance an average of 25 days by the mid-21st century, and 36 days by the late-21st century under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Future changes in the climatic niche and phenology of these important food-producing species may alter trophic relationships, with cascading impacts on regional ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Janet S Prevéy & Lauren E Parker & Constance A Harrington, 2020. "Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-19, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0232537
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0232537
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0232537
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0232537&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0232537?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    2. Lauren E. Parker & John T. Abatzoglou, 2018. "Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 211-224, March.
    3. David N. Laskin & Gregory J. McDermid & Scott E. Nielsen & Shawn J. Marshall & David R. Roberts & Alessandro Montaghi, 2019. "Advances in phenology are conserved across scale in present and future climates," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 419-425, May.
    4. Gian-Reto Walther & Eric Post & Peter Convey & Annette Menzel & Camille Parmesan & Trevor J. C. Beebee & Jean-Marc Fromentin & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Franz Bairlein, 2002. "Ecological responses to recent climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6879), pages 389-395, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. Kosanic & S. Harrison & K. Anderson & I. Kavcic, 2014. "Present and historical climate variability in South West England," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 221-237, May.
    2. Ernesto Azzurro & Paula Moschella & Francesc Maynou, 2011. "Tracking Signals of Change in Mediterranean Fish Diversity Based on Local Ecological Knowledge," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-8, September.
    3. Sajid Khan & Zishan Ahmad Wani & Rameez Ahmad & Kailash S. Gaira & Susheel Verma, 2024. "Time series analysis of climatic variability and trends in Shiwalik to Pir Panjal mountain range in the Indian western Himalaya," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 20355-20377, August.
    4. Edward Kato & Claudia Ringler & Mahmud Yesuf & Elizabeth Bryan, 2011. "Soil and water conservation technologies: a buffer against production risk in the face of climate change? Insights from the Nile basin in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(5), pages 593-604, September.
    5. Lazarus Chapungu & Luxon Nhamo & Roberto Cazzolla Gatti & Munyaradzi Chitakira, 2020. "Quantifying Changes in Plant Species Diversity in a Savanna Ecosystem Through Observed and Remotely Sensed Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Hong Ying & Hongyan Zhang & Ying Sun & Jianjun Zhao & Zhengxiang Zhang & Xiaoyi Guo & Hang Zhao & Rihan Wu & Guorong Deng, 2020. "CMIP5-Based Spatiotemporal Changes of Extreme Temperature Events during 2021–2100 in Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.
    7. Peng Qi & Guangxin Zhang & Yi Jun Xu & Zhikun Xia & Ming Wang, 2019. "Response of Water Resources to Future Climate Change in a High-Latitude River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-21, October.
    8. Víctor Rincón & Javier Velázquez & Derya Gülçin & Aida López-Sánchez & Carlos Jiménez & Ali Uğur Özcan & Juan Carlos López-Almansa & Tomás Santamaría & Daniel Sánchez-Mata & Kerim Çiçek, 2023. "Mapping Priority Areas for Connectivity of Yellow-Winged Darter ( Sympetrum flaveolum , Linnaeus 1758) under Climate Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-39, January.
    9. Huicong An & Xiaorong Zhang & Jiaqi Ye, 2024. "Analysis of Vegetation Environmental Stress and the Lag Effect in Countries along the “Six Economic Corridors”," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Lucie Kuczynski & Mathieu Chevalier & Pascal Laffaille & Marion Legrand & Gaël Grenouillet, 2017. "Indirect effect of temperature on fish population abundances through phenological changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, April.
    11. Kathleen A. Alexander & Marcos Carzolio & Douglas Goodin & Eric Vance, 2013. "Climate Change is Likely to Worsen the Public Health Threat of Diarrheal Disease in Botswana," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-29, March.
    12. Stergios Pirintsos & Luca Paoli & Stefano Loppi & Kiriakos Kotzabasis, 2011. "Photosynthetic performance of lichen transplants as early indicator of climatic stress along an altitudinal gradient in the arid Mediterranean area," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 305-328, August.
    13. Roberto Ambrosini & Riccardo Borgoni & Diego Rubolini & Beatrice Sicurella & Wolfgang Fiedler & Franz Bairlein & Stephen R Baillie & Robert A Robinson & Jacquie A Clark & Fernando Spina & Nicola Saino, 2014. "Modelling the Progression of Bird Migration with Conditional Autoregressive Models Applied to Ringing Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-10, July.
    14. Katherine Dagon & Daniel P. Schrag, 2019. "Quantifying the effects of solar geoengineering on vegetation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 235-251, March.
    15. Antoine Sambou & Shenggao Cheng & Lei Huang & Charles Nounagnon Gangnibo, 2010. "Jiufeng Protected Area Biodiversity Threats Assessment," Journal of Agricultural Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 2(3), pages 108-108, August.
    16. Lei Zhang & Zhinong Jing & Zuyao Li & Yang Liu & Shengzuo Fang, 2019. "Predictive Modeling of Suitable Habitats for Cinnamomum Camphora (L.) Presl Using Maxent Model under Climate Change in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-16, August.
    17. Dissanayake, Sahan T.M. & Önal, Hayri & Westervelt, James D. & Balbach, Harold E., 2012. "Incorporating species relocation in reserve design models: An example from Ft. Benning GA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 65-75.
    18. Jing Zhen & Xinyuan Wang & Qingkai Meng & Jingwei Song & Ying Liao & Bo Xiang & Huadong Guo & Chuansheng Liu & Ruixia Yang & Lei Luo, 2018. "Fine-Scale Evaluation of Giant Panda Habitats and Countermeasures against the Future Impacts of Climate Change and Human Disturbance (2015–2050): A Case Study in Ya’an, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, April.
    19. Bell, David M. & Schlaepfer, Daniel R., 2016. "On the dangers of model complexity without ecological justification in species distribution modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 330(C), pages 50-59.
    20. Shilu Tong & Peter Mather & Gerry Fitzgerald & David McRae & Ken Verrall & Dylan Walker, 2010. "Assessing the Vulnerability of Eco-Environmental Health to Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0232537. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.