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Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • M. Moriondo
  • G. Jones
  • B. Bois
  • C. Dibari
  • R. Ferrise
  • G. Trombi
  • M. Bindi

Abstract

This research simulates the impact of climate change on the distribution of the most important European wine regions using a comprehensive suite of spatially informative layers, including bioclimatic indices and water deficit, as predictor variables. More specifically, a machine learning approach (Random Forest, RF) was first calibrated for the present period and applied to future climate conditions as simulated by HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) to predict the possible spatial expansion and/or shift in potential grapevine cultivated area in 2020 and 2050 under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Projected changes in climate depicted by the GCM and SRES scenarios results in a progressive warming in all bioclimatic indices as well as increasing water deficit over the European domain, altering the climatic profile of each of the grapevine cultivated areas. The two main responses to these warmer and drier conditions are 1) progressive shifts of existing grapevine cultivated area to the north–northwest of their original ranges, and 2) expansion or contraction of the wine regions due to changes in within region suitability for grapevine cultivation. Wine regions with climatic conditions from the Mediterranean basin today (e.g., the Languedoc, Provence, Côtes Rhône Méridionales, etc.) were shown to potentially shift the most over time. Overall the results show the potential for a dramatic change in the landscape for winegrape production in Europe due to changes in climate. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • M. Moriondo & G. Jones & B. Bois & C. Dibari & R. Ferrise & G. Trombi & M. Bindi, 2013. "Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 825-839, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:3:p:825-839
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0739-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Urhausen & S. Brienen & A. Kapala & C. Simmer, 2011. "Climatic conditions and their impact on viticulture in the Upper Moselle region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 349-373, December.
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    1. Mario Cunha & Christian Richter, 2018. "Impact Of Climate Dynamics On Cyclical Properties Of Wine Production In Douro Region Using A Time-Frequency Approach," Working Papers 47, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    2. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 2020. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899, May.
    3. Omamuyovwi Gbejewoh & Saskia Keesstra & Erna Blancquaert, 2021. "The 3Ps (Profit, Planet, and People) of Sustainability amidst Climate Change: A South African Grape and Wine Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, March.
    4. Kym Anderson, 2019. "Evolving Varietal and Quality Distinctiveness of Australia’s Wine Regions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 24, pages 599-628, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Lamonaca, Emilia & Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Seccia, Antonio, 2021. "Climate changes and new productive dynamics in the global wine sector," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 10(2), April.
    6. Bonfante, A. & Alfieri, S.M. & Albrizio, R. & Basile, A. & De Mascellis, R. & Gambuti, A. & Giorio, P. & Langella, G. & Manna, P. & Monaco, E. & Moio, L. & Terribile, F., 2017. "Evaluation of the effects of future climate change on grape quality through a physically based model application: a case study for the Aglianico grapevine in Campania region, Italy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 100-109.
    7. Barbara Jagosz & Stanisław Rolbiecki & Piotr Stachowski & Wiesław Ptach & Ariel Łangowski & Wiesława Kasperska-Wołowicz & Hicran A. Sadan & Roman Rolbiecki & Piotr Prus & Maciej J. Kazula, 2020. "Assessment of Water Needs of Grapevines in Western Poland from the Perspective of Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, October.
    8. Ma, Shimeng & Ritsema, Coen J. & Wang, Sufen, 2024. "Achieving sustainable crop management: A holistic approach to crop competitiveness assessment and structure optimization with dual natural-social environmental impacts," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    9. Heiko Paeth & Daniel Schönbein & Luzia Keupp & Daniel Abel & Freddy Bangelesa & Miriam Baumann & Christian Büdel & Christian Hartmann & Christof Kneisel & Konstantin Kobs & Julian Krause & Martin Krec, 2023. "Climate change information tailored to the agricultural sector in Central Europe, exemplified on the region of Lower Franconia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-24, October.
    10. Lauren E. Parker & John T. Abatzoglou, 2018. "Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 211-224, March.
    11. Lewis, Gemma & Ariyawardana, Anoma & Lim-Camacho, Lilly & Crawford, Joseph, 2019. "Npr - Exploring Climate Change Adaptation With Australian Wine Consumers," 22nd Congress, Tasmania, Australia, March 3-8, 2019 345923, International Farm Management Association.
    12. Nieves Garcia-Casarejos & Pilar Gargallo & Javier Carroquino, 2018. "Introduction of Renewable Energy in the Spanish Wine Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-17, September.
    13. Srinivasan, M.S. & Measures, Richard & Muller, Carla & Neal, Mark & Rajanayaka, Channa & Shankar, Ude & Elley, Graham, 2021. "Comparing the water use metrics of just-in-case, just-in-time and justified irrigation strategies using a scenario-based tool," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    14. Agota Fodor & Vincent Segura & Marie Denis & Samuel Neuenschwander & Alexandre Fournier-Level & Philippe Chatelet & Félix Abdel Aziz Homa & Thierry Lacombe & Patrice This & Loic Le Cunff, 2014. "Genome-Wide Prediction Methods in Highly Diverse and Heterozygous Species: Proof-of-Concept through Simulation in Grapevine," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-14, November.
    15. Loïc Henry, 2023. "Adapting the designated area of geographical indications to climate change," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(4), pages 1088-1115, August.
    16. Mario Cunha & Christian Richter, 2016. "The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 239-251, September.
    17. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 0. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899.
    18. Lamonaca, Emilia & Seccia, Antonio & Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano, 2023. "Climate cha(lle)nges in global wine production and trade patterns," MPRA Paper 119296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Vega-Bayo, Ainhoa & Mariel, Petr & Meyerhoff, Jürgen & Corsi, Armando Maria & Chovan, Milan, 2023. "Climate change adaptation preferences of winemakers from the Rioja wine appellation," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    20. Ivan Viveros Santos & Cécile Bulle & Annie Levasseur & Louise Deschênes, 2018. "Regionalized Terrestrial Ecotoxicity Assessment of Copper-Based Fungicides Applied in Viticulture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.
    21. Inês L. Cabral & Anabela Carneiro & Tiago Nogueira & Jorge Queiroz, 2021. "Regulated Deficit Irrigation and Its Effects on Yield and Quality of Vitis vinifera L., Touriga Francesa in a Hot Climate Area (Douro Region, Portugal)," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, August.
    22. Moritz Wagner & Peter Stanbury & Tabea Dietrich & Johanna Döring & Joachim Ewert & Carlotta Foerster & Maximilian Freund & Matthias Friedel & Claudia Kammann & Mirjam Koch & Tom Owtram & Hans Reiner S, 2023. "Developing a Sustainability Vision for the Global Wine Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-29, July.

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