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Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation

Author

Listed:
  • Flavio Lehner

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Clara Deser

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Benjamin M. Sanderson

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

The probability that summer temperatures in the future will exceed the hottest on record during 1920–2014 is projected to increase at all land locations with global warming. Within the BRACE project framework we investigate the sensitivity of this projected change in probability to the choice of emissions scenario using two large ensembles of simulations with the Community Earth System Model. The large ensemble size allows for a robust assessment of the probability of record-breaking temperatures. Globally, the probability that any summer during the period 2061–2081 will be warmer than the hottest on record is 80 % for RCP 8.5 and 41 % for RCP 4.5. Hence, mitigation can reduce the risk of record-breaking temperatures by 39 %. The potential for risk reduction is greatest for some of the most populated regions of the globe. In Europe, for example, a potential risk reduction of over 50 % is projected. Model biases and future changes in temperature variance have only minor effects on the results, as their contribution stays well below 10 % for almost all locations.

Suggested Citation

  • Flavio Lehner & Clara Deser & Benjamin M. Sanderson, 2018. "Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 363-375, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1616-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1616-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Shoupeng Zhu & Fei Ge & Yi Fan & Ling Zhang & Frank Sielmann & Klaus Fraedrich & Xiefei Zhi, 2020. "Conspicuous temperature extremes over Southeast Asia: seasonal variations under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 343-360, June.
    2. Virginia Anne Kowal & Julian Ahlborn & Chantsallkham Jamsranjav & Otgonsuren Avirmed & Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, 2021. "Modeling Integrated Impacts of Climate Change and Grazing on Mongolia’s Rangelands," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-28, April.

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