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Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Jung-A Yang

    (Korea University
    Kyoto University)

  • Sooyoul Kim

    (Tottori University)

  • Sangyoung Son

    (Korea University)

  • Nobuhito Mori

    (Kyoto University)

  • Hajime Mase

    (Kyoto University)

Abstract

We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons.

Suggested Citation

  • Jung-A Yang & Sooyoul Kim & Sangyoung Son & Nobuhito Mori & Hajime Mase, 2020. "Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 425-442, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02782-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02782-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert L. Ceres & Chris E. Forest & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 221-235, November.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    3. Alberto Troccoli & Filippo Zambon & Kevin Hodges & Marco Marani, 2012. "Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 1065-1079, August.
    4. Joseph Park & Jayantha Obeysekera & Michelle Irizarry & Jenifer Barnes & Paul Trimble & Winifred Park-Said, 2011. "Storm surge projections and implications for water management in South Florida," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(1), pages 109-128, July.
    5. Ning Lin & Reza Marsooli & Brian A. Colle, 2019. "Storm surge return levels induced by mid-to-late-twenty-first-century extratropical cyclones in the Northeastern United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 143-158, May.
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