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A supply-limited torrent that does not feel the heat of climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Jiazhi Qie

    (University of Geneva)

  • Adrien Favillier

    (University of Geneva
    University of Geneva)

  • Frédéric Liébault

    (IGE)

  • Juan Antonio Ballesteros Cánovas

    (University of Geneva
    MNCN-CSIC)

  • Jérôme Lopez-Saez

    (University of Geneva)

  • Sébastien Guillet

    (University of Geneva)

  • Loïc Francon

    (University of Geneva)

  • Yihua Zhong

    (University of Geneva)

  • Markus Stoffel

    (University of Geneva
    University of Geneva
    University of Geneva)

  • Christophe Corona

    (University of Geneva
    LECA UMR UGA-USMB-CNRS 5553)

Abstract

Debris-flow activity in the Alps is anticipated to undergo pronounced changes in response to a warming climate. Yet, a fundamental challenge in comprehensively assessing changes in process activity is the systematic lack of long-term observational debris-flow records. Here, we reconstruct the longest, continuous time series (1626-2020) of debris flows at Multetta, a supply-limited torrential system in the Eastern Swiss Alps. Relying on growth-ring records of trees that were damaged by debris flows, we do not detect significant changes in the frequency or magnitude over time. This seeming absence of a direct climatic influence on debris-flow initiation aligns with the regular distribution of repose time patterns, indicating a dependence of local process activity on sediment discharge and recharge. This stark difference in process behavior between our supply-limited site and transport-limited catchments has implications for assessing torrential hazard and risk mitigation in a context of global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiazhi Qie & Adrien Favillier & Frédéric Liébault & Juan Antonio Ballesteros Cánovas & Jérôme Lopez-Saez & Sébastien Guillet & Loïc Francon & Yihua Zhong & Markus Stoffel & Christophe Corona, 2024. "A supply-limited torrent that does not feel the heat of climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-53316-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53316-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markus Stoffel & Thomas Mendlik & Michelle Schneuwly-Bollschweiler & Andreas Gobiet, 2014. "Possible impacts of climate change on debris-flow activity in the Swiss Alps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 141-155, January.
    2. Lorenzo Marchi & Pia Tecca, 2006. "Some Observations on the Use of Data from Historical Documents in Debris-Flow Studies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 38(3), pages 301-320, July.
    3. Stephan Gruber & Martin Hoelzle, 2001. "Statistical modelling of mountain permafrost distribution: local calibration and incorporation of remotely sensed data," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 69-77, March.
    4. Anna Harrison & Claire Dashwood, 2024. "Climate change and geohazards," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(6), pages 553-554, June.
    5. Mélanie Bertrand & Frédéric Liébault & Hervé Piégay, 2013. "Debris-flow susceptibility of upland catchments," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 497-511, June.
    6. Domenico Tropeano & Laura Turconi, 2004. "Using Historical Documents for Landslide, Debris Flow and Stream Flood Prevention. Applications in Northern Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 31(3), pages 663-679, March.
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