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Hydrological Response of Tropical Catchments to Climate Change as Modeled by the GR2M Model: A Case Study in Costa Rica

Author

Listed:
  • Maikel Mendez

    (Escuela de Ingeniería en Construcción, Instituto Tecnológico de Costa Rica, Cartago 30101, Costa Rica)

  • Luis-Alexander Calvo-Valverde

    (Escuela de Ingeniería en Computación, Instituto Tecnológico de Costa Rica, Cartago 30101, Costa Rica)

  • Pablo Imbach

    (Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center, Turrialba 30501, Costa Rica)

  • Ben Maathuis

    (Department of Water Resources, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Hengelosestraat 99, 7514 AE Enschede, The Netherlands)

  • David Hein-Grigg

    (Department of Geography, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4PS, UK)

  • Jorge-Andrés Hidalgo-Madriz

    (Gerencia Ambiental, Investigación y Desarrollo, Instituto Costarricense de Acueductos y Alcantarillados, San José 10109, Costa Rica)

  • Luis-Fernando Alvarado-Gamboa

    (Unidad de Climatología, Departamento de Desarrollo, Instituto Meteorológico Nacional (IMN), Ministerio del Ambiente y Energía (MINAE), San José 10109, Costa Rica)

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflow characteristics of five tropical catchments located in Costa Rica. An ensemble of five General Circulation Models (GCMs), namely HadGEM2-ES, CanESM2, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR dynamically downscaled by two Regional Climate Models (RCMs), specifically HadRM3P and RCA4, was selected to provide an overview of the impacts of different climate change scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 using the 1961–1990 baseline period. The GR2M hydrological model was used to reproduce the historical monthly surface runoff patterns of each catchment. Following calibration and validation of the GRM2 model, the projected impact of climate change on streamflow was simulated for a near-future (2011–2040), mid-future (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) for each catchment using the bias-corrected GCM-RCM multimodel ensemble-mean (MEM). Results anticipate wetter conditions for all catchments in the near-future and mid-future periods under RCPs 2.6 and 4.5, whereas dryer conditions are expected for the far-future period under RCP 8.5. Projected temperature trends indicate consistently warmer conditions with increasing radiative forcing and future periods. Streamflow changes across all catchments however are dominated by variations in projected precipitation. Wetter conditions for the near-future and mid-future horizons under RCPs 2.6 and 4.5 would result in higher runoff volumes, particularly during the late wet season (LWS). Conversely, dryer conditions for the far-future period under RCP8.5 would result in considerably lower runoff volumes during the early wet season (EWS) and the Mid-Summer Drought (MSD). In consequence, projected seasonal changes on streamflow across all catchments may result in more frequent flooding, droughts, and water supply shortage compared to historical hydrological regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Maikel Mendez & Luis-Alexander Calvo-Valverde & Pablo Imbach & Ben Maathuis & David Hein-Grigg & Jorge-Andrés Hidalgo-Madriz & Luis-Fernando Alvarado-Gamboa, 2022. "Hydrological Response of Tropical Catchments to Climate Change as Modeled by the GR2M Model: A Case Study in Costa Rica," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-31, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:24:p:16938-:d:1006342
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Renate Wilcke & Thomas Mendlik & Andreas Gobiet, 2013. "Multi-variable error correction of regional climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 871-887, October.
    2. Matthias Themeßl & Andreas Gobiet & Georg Heinrich, 2012. "Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 449-468, May.
    3. Julio Pérez-Sánchez & Javier Senent-Aparicio & Francisco Segura-Méndez & David Pulido-Velazquez & Raghavan Srinivasan, 2019. "Evaluating Hydrological Models for Deriving Water Resources in Peninsular Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-36, May.
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    Keywords

    bias-correction; climate-change; GCM; GR2M; RCM; RCP; streamflow; precipitation;
    All these keywords.

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