IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v151y2018i3d10.1007_s10584-018-2295-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of projected agro-climatic indices over Awun river basin, Nigeria for the late twenty-first century

Author

Listed:
  • Talardia Gbangou

    (Federal University of Technology
    Wageningen University of Research)

  • Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla

    (Competence Centre)

  • Onemayin David Jimoh

    (Federal University of Technology)

  • Appollonia Aimiosino Okhimamhe

    (Federal University of Technology)

Abstract

This paper examines changes in rainfall effectiveness indices of the Awun basin in Nigeria during the late twenty-first century for agricultural applications with outputs from high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCM simulations are driven by two global climate models for a reference period (1985–2004) and a future period (2080–2099) and for RCP4.5 (a scenario with some mitigation) and RCP8.5 (a business as usual scenario) forcings. Simulations are provided for the control (1985–2004) and scenario (2080–2099) periods. Observations from synoptic station are used for bias-correction. Three indices being local onset date, seasonality index (SI), and hydrologic ratio (HR) are analyzed. Onset and HR are tested with two evapotranspiration (ETp) models. Farmers’ perceptions are also collected to validate trends of rainfall indices for the present-day climate. We found that onset dates do not depend much on the ETp models used, and farmers’ perceptions are consistent with predicted rainfall patterns. Present-day climate trend shows an early onset. However, onset is projected to be late in future and the delay will be magnified under the business as usual scenario. Indeed, average onset date is found on the 5th May for present-day while in the future, a delay about 4 and 8 weeks is projected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. SI is between 0.80 and 0.99, and HR is less than 0.75 for all scenarios, meaning respectively that (i) the rainy season will get shorter and (ii) the area will get drier in the future compared to the present-day. Local stakeholders are forewarned to prepare for potential response strategies. A continuous provision of forecast-based rainfall indices to support farmer’s decision making is also recommended.

Suggested Citation

  • Talardia Gbangou & Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla & Onemayin David Jimoh & Appollonia Aimiosino Okhimamhe, 2018. "Assessment of projected agro-climatic indices over Awun river basin, Nigeria for the late twenty-first century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 445-462, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:151:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2295-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2295-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2295-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-018-2295-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wani, S. P. & Rockstrom, J. & Oweis, T., 2009. "Rainfed agriculture: unlocking the potential," IWMI Books, Reports H042126, International Water Management Institute.
    2. Ingram, K. T. & Roncoli, M. C. & Kirshen, P. H., 2002. "Opportunities and constraints for farmers of west Africa to use seasonal precipitation forecasts with Burkina Faso as a case study," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 331-349, December.
    3. R. Manzanas & L. Amekudzi & K. Preko & S. Herrera & J. Gutiérrez, 2014. "Precipitation variability and trends in Ghana: An intercomparison of observational and reanalysis products," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 805-819, June.
    4. L. Mariotti & I. Diallo & E. Coppola & F. Giorgi, 2014. "Seasonal and intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 53-65, July.
    5. Michael Morris & Gunnar Larson, 2009. "Awakening Africa’s Sleeping Giant : Prospects for Commercial Agriculture in the Guinea Savannah Zone and Beyond," World Bank Publications - Reports 9493, The World Bank Group.
    6. Wani, S. P. & Rockstrom, J. & Oweis, T., 2009. "Rainfed agriculture: unlocking the potential," IWMI Books, Reports H041989, International Water Management Institute.
    7. Müller, Marc & Sanfo, Safietou & Laube, Wolfram, 2013. "Impact of Changing Seasonal Rainfall Patterns on Rainy-Season Crop Production in the Guinea Savannah of West Africa," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150412, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Müller, Marc & Sanfo, Safietou & Laube, Wolfram, 2013. "Impact of Changing Seasonal Rainfall Patterns on Rainy-Season Crop Production in the Guinea Savannah of West Africa," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151208, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Matthias Themeßl & Andreas Gobiet & Georg Heinrich, 2012. "Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 449-468, May.
    10. Boris Orlowsky & Sonia Seneviratne, 2012. "Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 669-696, February.
    11. N. Elguindi & F. Giorgi & U. Turuncoglu, 2014. "Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations over the subset of CORDEX domains used in the Phase I CREMA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 7-21, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oudah Yobom, 2020. "Climate change and variability: empirical evidence for countries and agroecological zones of the Sahel," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 365-384, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2013. "Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 321-331.
    2. World Bank, 2012. "Uganda : Country Environmental Analysis," World Bank Publications - Reports 12407, The World Bank Group.
    3. Johnston, Robyn & Hoanh, Chu Thai & Lacombe, Guillaume & Lefroy, R. & Pavelic, Paul & Fry, Carolyn., 2012. "Managing water in rainfed agriculture in the Greater Mekong Subregion. Final report prepared by IWMI for Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida)," IWMI Research Reports H044646, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Marmai, Nadin & Franco Villoria, Maria & Guerzoni, Marco, 2016. "How the Black Swan damages the harvest: statistical modelling of extreme events in weather and crop production in Africa, Asia, and Latin America," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis LEI & BRICK - Laboratory of Economics of Innovation "Franco Momigliano", Bureau of Research in Innovation, Complexity and Knowledge, Collegio 201605, University of Turin.
    5. Asfaw, Solomon & Scognamillo, Antonio & Caprera, Gloria Di & Sitko, Nicholas & Ignaciuk, Adriana, 2019. "Heterogeneous impact of livelihood diversification on household welfare: Cross-country evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 278-295.
    6. Baldos, Uris Lantz C. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2012. "Economics of global yield gaps: A spatial analysis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124978, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Mabhaudhi, T. & Mpandeli, S. & Nhamo, Luxon & Chimonyo, V. G. P. & Nhemachena, Charles & Senzanje, A. & Naidoo, D. & Modi, A. T., 2018. "Prospects for improving irrigated agriculture in Southern Africa: linking water, energy and food," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 10(12):1-16.
    8. Sharma, Bharat & Molden, D. & Cook, Simon, 2015. "Water use efficiency in agriculture: measurement, current situation and trends," IWMI Books, Reports H046807, International Water Management Institute.
    9. Fisher, Monica & Holden , Stein T. & Katengeza, Samson P., 2017. "The adoption potential of Conservation Agriculture technologies in Malawi: A lead farmer promoter-adopter approach and assessment," CLTS Working Papers 1/17, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies, revised 21 Oct 2019.
    10. Markus Stoffel & Thomas Mendlik & Michelle Schneuwly-Bollschweiler & Andreas Gobiet, 2014. "Possible impacts of climate change on debris-flow activity in the Swiss Alps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 141-155, January.
    11. Saudamini Das, "undated". "Evaluating the Role of Media in Averting Heat Stroke Mortality: A Daily Panel Data Analysis," Working papers 102, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    12. Leila M. V. Carvalho, 2020. "Assessing precipitation trends in the Americas with historical data: A review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    13. Getnet, Kindie & Pfeifer, Catherine & MacAlister, Charlotte, 2014. "Economic incentives and natural resource management among small-scale farmers: Addressing the missing link," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-7.
    14. Descheemaeker, K. & Bunting, S. W. & Bindraban, P. & Muthuri, C. & Molden, D. & Beveridge, M. & van Brakel, Martin & Herrero, M. & Clement, Floriane & Boelee, Eline & Jarvis, D. I., 2013. "Increasing water productivity in Agriculture," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    15. Ranjan Bhattacharyya & Birendra Nath Ghosh & Pradeep Dogra & Prasanta Kumar Mishra & Priyabrata Santra & Suresh Kumar & Michael Augustine Fullen & Uttam Kumar Mandal & Kokkuvayil Sankaranarayanan Anil, 2016. "Soil Conservation Issues in India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-37, June.
    16. Dhouib, M. & Zitouna-Chebbi, R. & Prévot, L. & Molénat, J. & Mekki, I. & Jacob, F., 2022. "Multicriteria evaluation of the AquaCrop crop model in a hilly rainfed Mediterranean agrosystem," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    17. Raghu, Prabhakaran T. & Erenstein, Olaf & Böber, Christian & Krishna, Vijesh V., 2015. "Adoption and Outcomes of Hybrid Maize in the Marginal Areas of India," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 54(2), pages 1-26, May.
    18. Sharma, Bharat R. & Rao, K.V. & Vittal, K.P.R. & Ramakrishna, Y.S. & Amarasinghe, U., 2010. "Estimating the potential of rainfed agriculture in India: Prospects for water productivity improvements," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 23-30, January.
    19. Zongo, Beteo & Diarra, Abdoulaye & Barbier, Bruno & Zorom, Malicki & Yacouba, Hamma & Dogot, Thomas, 2015. "Farmers’ Practices And Willingness To Adopt Supplemental Irrigation In Burkina Faso," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, January.
    20. Oker, Tobias E. & Kisekka, Isaya & Sheshukov, Aleksey Y. & Aguilar, Jonathan & Rogers, Danny H., 2018. "Evaluation of maize production under mobile drip irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 11-21.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:151:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2295-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.