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Quantification of uncertainty sources in a probabilistic climate change assessment of future water shortages

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  • C. Harris
  • A. Quinn
  • J. Bridgeman

Abstract

As the incorporation of probabilistic climate change information into UK water resource management gathers apace, understanding the relative scales of the uncertainty sources in projections of future water shortage metrics is necessary for the resultant information to be understood and used effectively. Utilising modified UKCP09 weather generator data and a multi-model approach, this paper represents a first attempt at extending an uncertainty assessment of future stream flows under forced climates to consider metrics of water shortage based on the triggering of reservoir control curves. It is found that the perturbed physics ensemble uncertainty, which describes climate model parameter error uncertainty, is the cause of a far greater proportion of both the overall flow and water shortage per year probability uncertainty than that caused by SRES emissions scenario choice in the 2080s. The methodology for producing metrics of future water shortage risk from UKCP09 weather generator information described here acts as the basis of a robustness analysis of the North Staffordshire WRZ to climate change, which provides an alternative approach for making decisions despite large uncertainties, which will follow. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • C. Harris & A. Quinn & J. Bridgeman, 2013. "Quantification of uncertainty sources in a probabilistic climate change assessment of future water shortages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 317-329, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:121:y:2013:i:2:p:317-329
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0871-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julia Hall & Conor Murphy, 2010. "Vulnerability Analysis of Future Public Water Supply Under Changing Climate Conditions: A Study of the Moy Catchment, Western Ireland," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3527-3545, October.
    2. A. Kay & H. Davies & V. Bell & R. Jones, 2009. "Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 41-63, January.
    3. Helge Bormann, 2011. "Sensitivity analysis of 18 different potential evapotranspiration models to observed climatic change at German climate stations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 729-753, February.
    4. Simon Gosling & Glenn McGregor & Jason Lowe, 2012. "The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: an example with heat-related mortality change estimates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 217-231, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Scott & Don S. Daly & Mohamad I. Hejazi & G. Page Kyle & Lu Liu & Haewon C. McJeon & Anupriya Mundra & Pralit L. Patel & Jennie S. Rice & Nathalie Voisin, 2016. "Sensitivity of future U.S. Water shortages to socioeconomic and climate drivers: a case study in Georgia using an integrated human-earth system modeling framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 233-246, May.

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