The uncertainty of climate change impacts on China’s agricultural economy based on an integrated assessment approach

This study empirically assesses the uncertainty of climate change impacts on China’s agriculture economy based on IPCC RCP scenarios. The 95% confidence intervals of China’s major crop yields are projected based on an econometric estimation. Then, an agricultural partial equilibrium model is employed to reveal the uncertainty of climate change impacts on China’s agricultural economy (production, price, trade, and self-sufficiency). The results show that, on average, climate change will reduce production, raise prices, increase net imports of most crops, and lower China’s crop self-sufficiency. The uncertainty of climate change impacts on the production of different crops varies greatly. The differences in uncertainty intervals of crop production are largely determined by the sensitivity of crop yield to climate variables. The crops with the smaller estimated coefficients of crop yield to climate variables would have relatively larger uncertainty intervals of production changes. The confidence intervals for all crops widen as time passes, indicating the rising uncertainty for projecting future changes of the agricultural economy due to the continuously changing climate. Compared with RCP 2.6, the uncertainty of climate change impacts on China’s agricultural economy is much higher under RCP 8.5 for all crops. China should improve its climate preparedness, considering the range of uncertainty on climate change impacts.