IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/bioerq/v2y2017i3d10.1007_s41247-017-0028-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling Global Wolfram Mining, Secondary Extraction, Supply, Stocks-in-Society, Recycling, Market Price and Resources, Using the WORLD6 System Dynamics Model

Author

Listed:
  • Harald Ulrik Sverdrup

    (University of Iceland)

  • Anna Hulda Olafsdottir

    (University of Iceland)

  • Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir

    (University of Iceland)

Abstract

The extraction, supply, market price and recycling of the metal wolfram (W) were modelled using a wolfram submodule developed for the WORLD6 system dynamics model. The resource estimates made for wolfram resulted in significantly larger estimates than earlier studies (URR = 28 million ton in 2015, where at least 24 million ton is in primary ore and about 2 million ton is secondary resources). The model can well reconstruct the observed extraction rates and price histories. The model outputs demonstrate that wolfram is a finite resource and that there is a risk for supply scarcity, unless the degree of recycling will be significantly improved from the present level. The model outputs suggest that there will be a soft scarcity around 2030 and hard scarcity after 2200. When pictured as supply per person per year or stocks-in-use, there will be a supply problem in the distant future. There are substitutes for some applications, but for some key uses there are none that are optimal. Without wolfram, several advanced technologies seen as important at the present time will become difficult to produce.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir & Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir, 2017. "Modelling Global Wolfram Mining, Secondary Extraction, Supply, Stocks-in-Society, Recycling, Market Price and Resources, Using the WORLD6 System Dynamics Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 1-17, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:bioerq:v:2:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s41247-017-0028-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s41247-017-0028-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41247-017-0028-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41247-017-0028-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tilton, John E. & Lagos, Gustavo, 2007. "Assessing the long-run availability of copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 19-23.
    2. Rosenau-Tornow, Dirk & Buchholz, Peter & Riemann, Axel & Wagner, Markus, 2009. "Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials--a combined evaluation of past and future trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 161-175, December.
    3. Phillip Crowson, 2011. "Mineral reserves and future minerals availability," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 24(1), pages 1-6, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anna Hulda Olafsdottir & Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, 2018. "Modelling Global Mining, Secondary Extraction, Supply, Stocks-in-Society, Recycling, Market Price and Resources, Using the WORLD6 Model; Tin," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Larona S. Teseletso & Tsuyoshi Adachi, 2022. "Long-Term Sustainability of Copper and Iron Based on a System Dynamics Model," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir, 2018. "A System Dynamics Model Assessment of the Supply of Niobium and Tantalum Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-35, June.
    4. Koji Tokimatsu & Shinsuke Murakami & Tsuyoshi Adachi & Ryota Ii & Rieko Yasuoka & Masahiro Nishio, 2017. "Long-term demand and supply of non-ferrous mineral resources by a mineral balance model," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(3), pages 193-206, October.
    5. Sverdrup, Harald U. & Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala & Koca, Deniz, 2015. "Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 139-154.
    6. Calvo, Guiomar & Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio, 2017. "Assessing maximum production peak and resource availability of non-fuel mineral resources: Analyzing the influence of extractable global resources," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 208-217.
    7. Friedrich-W. Wellmer, 2022. "What we have learned from the past and how we should look forward," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(3), pages 765-795, December.
    8. Emilio Castillo & Roderick Eggert, 2019. "Reconciling Diverging Views on Mineral Depletion: A Modified Cumulative Availability Curve Applied to Copper Resources," Working Papers 2019-02, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    9. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir & Deniz Koca, 2017. "Integrated Modelling of the Global Cobalt Extraction, Supply, Price and Depletion of Extractable Resources Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, March.
    10. József Popp & Judit Oláh & Mária Farkas Fekete & Zoltán Lakner & Domicián Máté, 2018. "The Relationship Between Prices of Various Metals, Oil and Scarcity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, September.
    11. Guo, Tianjiao & Geng, Yong & Song, Xiaoqian & Rui, Xue & Ge, Zewen, 2023. "Tracing magnesium flows in China: A dynamic material flow analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    13. Biswas, Pritam & Sinha, Rabindra Kumar & Sen, Phalguni, 2023. "A review of state-of-the-art techniques for the determination of the optimum cut-off grade of a metalliferous deposit with a bibliometric mapping in a surface mine planning context," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    14. Guzmán, Juan Ignacio & Karpunina, Alina & Araya, Constanza & Faúndez, Patricio & Bocchetto, Marcela & Camacho, Rodolfo & Desormeaux, Daniela & Galaz, Juanita & Garcés, Ingrid & Kracht, Willy & Lagos, , 2023. "Chile: On the road to global sustainable mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Gordon, R.B. & Bertram, M. & Graedel, T.E., 2007. "On the sustainability of metal supplies: A response to Tilton and Lagos," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 24-28.
    16. Chen, Wu & Wang, Minxi & Li, Xin, 2016. "Analysis of copper flows in the United States: 1975–2012," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 67-76.
    17. Kushnir, Duncan & Sandén, Björn A., 2012. "The time dimension and lithium resource constraints for electric vehicles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 93-103.
    18. Wei, Jing & Zhang, Jianjun & Wu, Xia & Song, Zeyu, 2022. "Governance in mining enterprises: An effective way to promote the intensification of resources—Taking coal resources as an example," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir & Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir & Deniz Koca, 2018. "A System Dynamics Assessment of the Supply of Molybdenum and Rhenium Used for Super-alloys and Specialty Steels, Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-43, September.
    20. Lapko, Yulia & Trucco, Paolo, 2018. "Influence of power regimes on identification and mitigation of material criticality: The case of platinum group metals in the automotive sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 360-370.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:bioerq:v:2:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s41247-017-0028-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.