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Effects of the energy transition on environmental impacts of cobalt supply: A prospective life cycle assessment study on future supply of cobalt

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  • Marc van der Meide
  • Carina Harpprecht
  • Stephen Northey
  • Yongxiang Yang
  • Bernhard Steubing

Abstract

Cobalt is considered a key metal in the energy transition, and demand is expected to increase substantially by 2050. This demand is for an important part because of cobalt use in (electric vehicle) batteries. This study investigated the environmental impacts of the production of cobalt and how these could change in the future. We modeled possible future developments in the cobalt supply chain using four variables: (v1) ore grade, (v2) primary market shares, (v3) secondary market shares, and (v4) energy transition. These variables are driven by two metal‐demand scenarios, which we derived from scenarios from the shared socioeconomic pathways, a “business as usual” (BAU) and a “sustainable development” (SD) scenario. We estimated future environmental impacts of cobalt supply by 2050 under these two scenarios using prospective life cycle assessment. We found that the environmental impacts of cobalt production could likely increase and are strongly dependent on the recycling market share and the overall energy transition. The results showed that under the BAU scenario, climate change impacts per unit of cobalt production could increase by 9% by 2050 compared to 2010, while they decreased by 28% under the SD scenario. This comes at a trade‐off to other impacts like human toxicity, which could strongly increase in the SD scenario (112% increase) compared to the BAU scenario (71% increase). Furthermore, we found that the energy transition could offset most of the increase of climate change impacts induced by a near doubling in cobalt demand in 2050 between the two scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc van der Meide & Carina Harpprecht & Stephen Northey & Yongxiang Yang & Bernhard Steubing, 2022. "Effects of the energy transition on environmental impacts of cobalt supply: A prospective life cycle assessment study on future supply of cobalt," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(5), pages 1631-1645, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:26:y:2022:i:5:p:1631-1645
    DOI: 10.1111/jiec.13258
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Northey, S. & Mohr, S. & Mudd, G.M. & Weng, Z. & Giurco, D., 2014. "Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 190-201.
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    3. Guiomar Calvo & Gavin Mudd & Alicia Valero & Antonio Valero, 2016. "Decreasing Ore Grades in Global Metallic Mining: A Theoretical Issue or a Global Reality?," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-14, November.
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    7. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    8. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir & Deniz Koca, 2017. "Integrated Modelling of the Global Cobalt Extraction, Supply, Price and Depletion of Extractable Resources Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, March.
    9. Carina Harpprecht & Lauran van Oers & Stephen A. Northey & Yongxiang Yang & Bernhard Steubing, 2021. "Environmental impacts of key metals' supply and low‐carbon technologies are likely to decrease in the future," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1543-1559, December.
    10. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hu, Xueyue & Wang, Chunying & Elshkaki, Ayman, 2024. "Material-energy Nexus: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    2. Joris Šimaitis & Stephen Allen & Christopher Vagg, 2023. "Are future recycling benefits misleading? Prospective life cycle assessment of lithium‐ion batteries," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(5), pages 1291-1303, October.
    3. van den Oever, A.E.M. & Costa, D. & Messagie, M., 2023. "Prospective life cycle assessment of alternatively fueled heavy-duty trucks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).

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