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A System Dynamics Model Assessment of the Supply of Niobium and Tantalum Using the WORLD6 Model

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  • Harald Ulrik Sverdrup

    (University of Iceland)

  • Anna Hulda Olafsdottir

    (University of Iceland)

Abstract

The mining, secondary extraction, supply, market price and recycling of the metals tantalum (Ta) and niobium (Nb) were modelled using the WORLD6 model. The ultimately recoverable resource estimates resulted in significantly larger amounts than earlier studies with a best estimate of the ultimately recoverable resources of about 2 million ton of tantalum and 95 million ton of niobium. There is uncertainty in the resource estimates and they vary in the range from 0.790 million to 2 million ton of tantalum and from 52 million to 160 million ton of niobium. Niobium deposit contents were assessed with respect to extractability, and 56% seems to be extractable. The WORLD6 model outputs show that the use efficiency of these metals will be low unless the degree of recycling will be significantly improved. A sensitivity analysis was done with respect to resource size and different future demand levels, with significant supply sustainability impacts for niobium from resource size, but little impacts for tantalum. We show that for the amount resource available, price and demand dynamics will have greater impact on supply than resource size above 50 million ton of niobium. Peak production is estimated to take place 2020–2055 for tantalum and niobium. The model suggests that there will be soft scarcity in niobium and hard scarcity in tantalum after 2020–2030 with the present regime of recycling. The niobium and tantalum extraction and ore grades were modelled with good success when tested against observed data.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir, 2018. "A System Dynamics Model Assessment of the Supply of Niobium and Tantalum Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-35, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:bioerq:v:3:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s41247-018-0038-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s41247-018-0038-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anna Hulda Olafsdottir & Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, 2018. "Modelling Global Mining, Secondary Extraction, Supply, Stocks-in-Society, Recycling, Market Price and Resources, Using the WORLD6 Model; Tin," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-17, September.
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    4. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir & Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir & Deniz Koca, 2018. "A System Dynamics Assessment of the Supply of Molybdenum and Rhenium Used for Super-alloys and Specialty Steels, Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-43, September.
    5. Mudd, Gavin M., 2010. "The Environmental sustainability of mining in Australia: key mega-trends and looming constraints," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 98-115, June.
    6. Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir, 2012. "Assessing Long Term Sustainability of Global Supply of Natural Resources and Materials," Chapters, in: Chaouki Ghenai (ed.), Sustainable Development - Energy, Engineering and Technologies - Manufacturing and Environment, IntechOpen.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir, 2019. "Assessing the Long-Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 1-29, June.
    2. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir, 2020. "Conceptualization and parameterization of the market price mechanism in the WORLD6 model for metals, materials, and fossil fuels," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(3), pages 285-310, October.
    3. Olafsdottir, Anna Hulda & Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik, 2019. "Defining a Conceptual Model for Market Mechanisms in Food Supply Chains, and Parameterizing Price Functions for Coffee, Wheat, Corn, Soybeans and Beef," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 10(02), April.
    4. John Sherwood & Michael Carbajales-Dale & Becky Roselius Haney, 2020. "Putting the Biophysical (Back) in Economics: A Taxonomic Review of Modeling the Earth-Bound Economy," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, March.

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