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Assessing the Past and Future Sustainability of Global Helium Resources, Extraction, Supply and Use, Using the Integrated Assessment Model WORLD7

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  • Anna Hulda Olafsdottir

    (University of Iceland)

  • Harald Ulrik Sverdrup

    (Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences)

Abstract

The sustainability of the helium production, supply and use was assessed using the WORLD7 integrated model. The use of helium is at present concluded to be unsustainable with respect to long-term supply security, because of lack of significant recycling. There is no risk for significant helium scarcity in the short term (before 2030), but in the long term, the scarcity risk is unavoidable under business as usual. The helium supply runs into limitations by 2090, under business as usual and supply declines after that. The study shows that the present helium recycling rate is far too low, causing helium to be squandered in one-way use and that is driving helium prices up. A scenario analysis with the WORLD7 model suggests that a sustained program for helium recycling and demand management, combined with political efforts to ban unnecessary use, will be able to significantly improve the long-term helium supply situation. The outputs show that such efforts may be sufficient for avoiding any scarcity under the demand assumptions taken.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Hulda Olafsdottir & Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, 2020. "Assessing the Past and Future Sustainability of Global Helium Resources, Extraction, Supply and Use, Using the Integrated Assessment Model WORLD7," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:bioerq:v:5:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s41247-020-00072-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s41247-020-00072-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Massol, Olivier & Rifaat, Omer, 2018. "Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 186-211.
    2. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir & Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir & Deniz Koca, 2018. "A System Dynamics Assessment of the Supply of Molybdenum and Rhenium Used for Super-alloys and Specialty Steels, Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-43, September.
    3. Cai, Zhiming & Clarke, Richard H. & Glowacki, Bartek A. & Nuttall, William J. & Ward, Nick, 2010. "Ongoing ascent to the helium production plateau--Insights from system dynamics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 77-89, June.
    4. Dennis Epple & Lester Lave, 1980. "Helium: Investments in the Future," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 11(2), pages 617-630, Autumn.
    5. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir & Deniz Koca, 2017. "Integrated Modelling of the Global Cobalt Extraction, Supply, Price and Depletion of Extractable Resources Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. André Månberger, 2021. "Reduced Use of Fossil Fuels can Reduce Supply of Critical Resources," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, June.
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