IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/astaws/v16y2022i1d10.1007_s11943-021-00297-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On assessing excess mortality in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic
[Zur Berechnung der Übersterblichkeit in Deutschland während der COVID-19-Pandemie]

Author

Listed:
  • Giacomo De Nicola

    (Ludwig-Maximillians-Universität München)

  • Göran Kauermann

    (Ludwig-Maximillians-Universität München)

  • Michael Höhle

    (University of Stockholm)

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with a very high number of casualties in the general population. Assessing the exact magnitude of this number is a non-trivial problem, as relying only on officially reported COVID-19 associated fatalities runs the risk of incurring in several kinds of biases. One of the ways to approach the issue is to compare overall mortality during the pandemic with expected mortality computed using the observed mortality figures of previous years. In this paper, we build on existing methodology and propose two ways to compute expected as well as excess mortality, namely at the weekly and at the yearly level. Particular focus is put on the role of age, which plays a central part in both COVID-19-associated and overall mortality. We illustrate our methods by making use of age-stratified mortality data from the years 2016 to 2020 in Germany to compute age group-specific excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Giacomo De Nicola & Göran Kauermann & Michael Höhle, 2022. "On assessing excess mortality in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic [Zur Berechnung der Übersterblichkeit in Deutschland während der COVID-19-Pandemie]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 16(1), pages 5-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:16:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11943-021-00297-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-021-00297-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11943-021-00297-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11943-021-00297-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evelyn Kitagawa, 1964. "Standardized comparisons in population research," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 1(1), pages 296-315, March.
    2. Jennifer Beam Dowd & Liliana Andriano & David M. Brazel & Valentina Rotondi & Per Block & Xuejie Ding & Yan Liu & Melinda C. Mills, 2020. "Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(18), pages 9696-9698, May.
    3. Andrew T. Levin & William P. Hanage & Nana Owusu-Boaitey & Kensington B. Cochran & Seamus P. Walsh & Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, 2020. "Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, & Public Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 27597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Julien Riou & Anthony Hauser & Anna Fesser & Christian L. Althaus & Matthias Egger & Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, 2023. "Direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Switzerland," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Timo Schmid & Markus Zwick, 2022. "Vorwort der Herausgeber," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-4, March.
    3. Joachim Ragnitz & Joachim Ragnitz, 2024. "Unsicherheiten bei der Ermittlung von Übersterblichkeit während der Corona-Pandemie," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 31(02), pages 26-29, April.
    4. Michael Höhle, 2022. "Comment “On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic” by Jahn et al," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(3), pages 383-386, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jorge Paz, 2020. "Notas sobre la demografía del COVID-19 en Argentina," Working Papers 22, Instituto de Estudios Laborales y del Desarrollo Económico (IELDE) - Universidad Nacional de Salta - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Jurídicas y Sociales.
    2. Fattahi, Mohammad & Keyvanshokooh, Esmaeil & Kannan, Devika & Govindan, Kannan, 2023. "Resource planning strategies for healthcare systems during a pandemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 192-206.
    3. Anna Scherbina, 2021. "Assessing the Optimality of a COVID Lockdown in the United States," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 177-201, July.
    4. Battiston, Pietro & Gamba, Simona, 2021. "COVID-19: R0 is lower where outbreak is larger," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 141-147.
    5. Laliotis, Ioannis & Minos, Dimitrios, 2022. "Religion, social interactions, and COVID-19 incidence in Western Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Suryakant Yadav, 2021. "Progress of Inequality in Age at Death in India: Role of Adult Mortality," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 523-550, July.
    7. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2022. "A macroeconomic model of an epidemic with silent transmission and endogenous self‐isolation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 581-625, February.
    8. Nepomuceno, Marília, 2020. "Vulnerable groups at increased risk of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa: The case of the HIV population," OSF Preprints uyzjv, Center for Open Science.
    9. Evgeny M. Andreev & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Alexander Z. Begun, 2002. "Algorithm for decomposition of differences between aggregate demographic measures and its application to life expectancies, Gini coefficients, health expectancies, parity-progression ratios and total ," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    10. Sánchez-Romero, Miguel & Di Lego, Vanessa & Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia & Queiroz, Bernardo Lanza, 2020. "How many lives can be saved? A global view on the impact of testing, herd immunity and demographics on COVID-19 fatality rates," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 05/2020, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    11. Naudé, Wim & Cameron, Martin, 2020. "Failing to Pull Together: South Africa's Troubled Response to COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13649, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Saskia Morwinsky & Natalie Nitsche & Enrique Acosta, 2021. "COVID-19 fatality in Germany: Demographic determinants of variation in case-fatality rates across and within German federal states during the first and second waves," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(45), pages 1355-1372.
    13. Neha Deopa & Piergiuseppe Fortunato, 2022. "Language and the cultural markers of COVID-19," Post-Print hal-03665755, HAL.
    14. Hensel, Lukas & Witte, Marc & Caria, A. Stefano & Fetzer, Thiemo & Fiorin, Stefano & Götz, Friedrich M. & Gomez, Margarita & Haushofer, Johannes & Ivchenko, Andriy & Kraft-Todd, Gordon & Reutskaja, El, 2022. "Global Behaviors, Perceptions, and the Emergence of Social Norms at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 473-496.
    15. Aydogan, Yigit, 2020. "Are Covid-19 Cases Independent of the City Sizes?," MPRA Paper 99697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Anthony Medford & Sergi Trias-Llimós, 2020. "Population age structure only partially explains the large number of COVID-19 deaths at the oldest ages," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(19), pages 533-544.
    17. Miguel Casares & Paul Gomme & Hashmat Khan, 2022. "COVID‐19 pandemic and economic scenarios for Ontario," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 503-539, February.
    18. Montanari, Giorgio E. & Doretti, Marco & Bartolucci, Francesco, 2017. "A multilevel latent Markov model for the evaluation of nursing homes' performance," MPRA Paper 80691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Lin Ma & Gil Shapira & Damien de Walque & Quy‐Toan Do & Jed Friedman & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2022. "The Intergenerational Mortality Trade‐Off Of Covid‐19 Lockdown Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1427-1468, August.
    20. Clifford C. Clogg & Scott R. Eliason, 1986. "On Regression Standardization for Moments," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 14(4), pages 423-446, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:16:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11943-021-00297-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.