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COVID-19 Pandemic and Economic Scenarios For Ontario

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Abstract

To study the efficacy of the public policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic, we develop a model of the rich interactions between epidemiology and socioeconomic choices. Preferences feature a "fear of death" that lead individuals to reduce their social activity and work time in the face of the pandemic. The aggregate effect these reductions is to slow the spread of the coronavirus. We calibrate the model, including public policies, to developments in Ontario in spring 2020. The model fits the epidemiological data quite well, including the second wave starting in late 2020. We find that socioeconomic interventions work well in the short term, resulting in a rapid drop off in new cases. The long run, however, is governed chiefly by health developments. Welfare cost calculations point to synergies between the health and socioeconomic measures.

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  • Miguel Casares & Paul Gomme & Hashmat Khan, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Economic Scenarios For Ontario," Carleton Economic Papers 20-15, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 05 Feb 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:20-15
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    Cited by:

    1. Houštecká, Anna & Koh, Dongya & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2021. "Contagion at work: Occupations, industries and human contact," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2021. "Economic Activity and Public Health Policy: A Note," Working Papers 1284, Barcelona School of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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