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Direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Switzerland

Author

Listed:
  • Julien Riou

    (University of Bern
    Federal Office of Public Health)

  • Anthony Hauser

    (University of Bern
    Federal Office of Public Health)

  • Anna Fesser

    (Federal Office of Public Health)

  • Christian L. Althaus

    (University of Bern)

  • Matthias Egger

    (University of Bern
    University of Bristol
    University of Cape Town)

  • Garyfallos Konstantinoudis

    (School of Public Health, Imperial College London)

Abstract

The direct and indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population-level mortality is of concern to public health but challenging to quantify. Using data for 2011–2019, we applied Bayesian models to predict the expected number of deaths in Switzerland and compared them with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths from February 2020 to April 2022 (study period). We estimated that COVID-19-related mortality was underestimated by a factor of 0.72 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.46–0.78). After accounting for COVID-19 deaths, the observed mortality was −4% (95% CrI: −8 to 0) lower than expected. The deficit in mortality was concentrated in age groups 40–59 (−12%, 95%CrI: −19 to −5) and 60–69 (−8%, 95%CrI: −15 to −2). Although COVID-19 control measures may have negative effects, after subtracting COVID-19 deaths, there were fewer deaths in Switzerland during the pandemic than expected, suggesting that any negative effects of control measures were offset by the positive effects. These results have important implications for the ongoing debate about the appropriateness of COVID-19 control measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Riou & Anthony Hauser & Anna Fesser & Christian L. Althaus & Matthias Egger & Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, 2023. "Direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Switzerland," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-35770-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35770-9
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    1. Mikael Rostila & Agneta Cederström & Matthew Wallace & Siddartha Aradhya & Malin Ahrne & Sol P. Juárez, 2023. "Inequalities in COVID-19 severe morbidity and mortality by country of birth in Sweden," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

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