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A Macroeconomic Model of an Epidemic with Silent Transmission and Endogenous Self-isolation

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  • Antonio Diez de los Rios

Abstract

We study the interaction between epidemics and economic decisions in a model where (1) agents allocate their time to market and home production and social and home leisure, (2) these activities differ in their degree of contagiousness, (3) some infected individuals are indistinguishable from susceptible individuals and (4) agents are not necessarily rational. For baseline parameter values for the COVID-19 pandemic, we find that agents partially self-isolate by allocating more time to home activities and that the effective reproduction number of the disease stabilises at one. Detection and isolation of infected individuals severely mitigate the recession caused by the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2020. "A Macroeconomic Model of an Epidemic with Silent Transmission and Endogenous Self-isolation," Staff Working Papers 20-50, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:20-50
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Modelling > General Equilibrium

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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Casares & Paul Gomme & Hashmat Khan, 2022. "COVID‐19 pandemic and economic scenarios for Ontario," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 503-539, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Economic models;

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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