IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v17y2011i1p5-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Non-Linear Tourism Demand Forecast Combination Model

Author

Listed:
  • Shuang Cang

Abstract

It has been demonstrated in the tourism literature that a combination of individual tourism forecasting models can provide better performance than individual forecasting models. However, the linear combination uses only inputs that have a linear correlation to the actual outputs. This paper proposes a non-linear combination method using multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLPNN), which can map the non-linear relationship between inputs and outputs. UK inbound tourism quarterly arrivals data by purpose of visit are used for this case study. The empirical results show that the proposed non-linear MLPNN combination model is robust, powerful and can provide better performance at predicting arrivals than linear combination models.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuang Cang, 2011. "A Non-Linear Tourism Demand Forecast Combination Model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(1), pages 5-20, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:17:y:2011:i:1:p:5-20
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2011.0031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5367/te.2011.0031
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5367/te.2011.0031?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Willem A. Naudé & Andrea Saayman, 2005. "Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: A Panel Data Regression Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 365-391, September.
    2. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1599-1619.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gunter, Ulrich & Önder, Irem, 2016. "Forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-212.
    2. Eden Xiaoying Jiao & Jason Li Chen, 2019. "Tourism forecasting: A review of methodological developments over the last decade," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 469-492, May.
    3. Xi Wu & Adam Blake, 2023. "Does the combination of models with different explanatory variables improve tourism demand forecasting performance?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(8), pages 2032-2056, December.
    4. Ji Wu & Xian Cheng & Stephen Shaoyi Liao, 2020. "Tourism forecast combination using the stochastic frontier analysis technique," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(7), pages 1086-1107, November.
    5. Hassani, Hossein & Webster, Allan & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Heravi, Saeed, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Tourist arrivals using optimal Singular Spectrum Analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 322-335.
    6. Ulrich Gunter & Irem Önder & Egon Smeral, 2020. "Are Combined Tourism Forecasts Better at Minimizing Forecasting Errors?," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-19, June.
    7. Yi-Chung Hu, 2023. "Tourism combination forecasting using a dynamic weighting strategy with change-point analysis," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(14), pages 2357-2374, July.
    8. Wan, Shui Ki & Song, Haiyan, 2018. "Forecasting turning points in tourism growth," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 156-167.
    9. Gang Xie & Xin Li & Yatong Qian & Shouyang Wang, 2021. "Forecasting tourism demand with KPCA-based web search indexes," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 721-743, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seetaram, Neelu, 2010. "Computing airfare elasticities or opening Pandora's box," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 27-36.
    2. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Jittaporn Sriboonjit & Thanes Sriwichailamphan & Prasert Chaitip & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2010. "A Panel Cointegration Analysis: An Application To International Tourism Demand Of Thailand," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 10(3), pages 69-86.
    3. Seetaram, Neelu, 2012. "Immigration and international inbound tourism: Empirical evidence from Australia," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1535-1543.
    4. Dogru, Tarik & Sirakaya-Turk, Ercan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2017. "Remodeling international tourism demand: Old theory and new evidence," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 47-55.
    5. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
    6. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña, 2010. "Tourism in South Africa. Time series persistence and the nature of shocks. Are they transitory or permament?," NCID Working Papers 06/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    7. Boopendra seetanah & Raja Vinesh Sannassee & Viraiyen Teeroovengadum, 2017. "Air Access Liberalisation, Marketing Promotion And Tourism Trade," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 5207098, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    8. Nuno Carlos LEITÃO & Muhammad SHAHBAZ, 2012. "Migration and Tourism Demand," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(567)), pages 39-48, February.
    9. Dutta, Nabamita & Kar, Saibal, 2018. "Relating rule of law and budgetary allocation for tourism: Does per capita income growth make a difference for Indian states?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 263-271.
    10. Lili Sun & G. Cornelis Van Kooten & Graham M. Voss, 2005. "Demand for Wildlife Hunting in British Columbia," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 53(1), pages 25-46, March.
    11. Faruk Balli & Hatice O. Balli & Nikau Tangaroa, 2015. "Research Note: The Impact of Marketing Expenditure on International Tourism Demand for the Cook Islands," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(6), pages 1331-1343, December.
    12. James Roumasset & Christopher Wada, 2012. "The Economics of Groundwater," Working Papers 201211, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    13. Gangwei Cai & Baoping Zou & Xiaoting Chi & Xincheng He & Yuang Guo & Wen Jiang & Qian Wu & Yujin Zhang & Yanna Zhou, 2023. "Neighborhood Spatio-Temporal Impacts of SDG 8.9: The Case of Urban and Rural Exhibition-Driven Tourism by Multiple Methods," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-37, January.
    14. E. M. Ekanayake & Mihalis Halkides & John R. Ledgerwood, 2012. "Inbound International Tourism To The United States: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Management and Marketing Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(3), pages 15-27.
    15. Abdo KATAYA, 2021. "The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on International and Lebanese Tourism Indicators," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 5-13.
    16. Wamboye, Evelyn F. & Nyaronga, Peter John & Sergi, Bruno S., 2020. "What are the determinant of international tourism in Tanzania?," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    17. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to tourism transitory at business cycle horizons?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2071-2077.
    18. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Are Australia's tourism markets converging?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1153-1162.
    19. Juan L. Eugenio-Martin & Noelia Martín-Morales & M. Thea Sinclair, 2008. "The Role of Economic Development in Tourism Demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(4), pages 673-690, December.
    20. Boopen Seetanah & Ramesh Durbarry & J.F. Nicolas Ragodoo, 2010. "Using the Panel Cointegration Approach to Analyse the Determinants of Tourism Demand in South Africa," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(3), pages 715-729, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:17:y:2011:i:1:p:5-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.