IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v16y2010i3p715-729.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using the Panel Cointegration Approach to Analyse the Determinants of Tourism Demand in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Boopen Seetanah

    (Faculty of Law and Management, University of Mauritius, Reduit, Republic of Mauritius)

  • Ramesh Durbarry

    (School of Sustainable Development and Tourism, University of Technology, Mauritius, La Tour Koenig, Pointe-aux-Sables, Republic of Mauritius)

  • J.F. Nicolas Ragodoo

    (Faculty of Social Studies and Humanities, University of Mauritius, Reduit, Republic of Mauritius)

Abstract

Estimating tourism demand has become a challenge among researchers, as identification of key determinants is important for policymakers at a time when tourism has become the world's largest industry. Using a theoretical framework based on the gravity model, this paper models inbound tourism demand for South Africa to estimate price and income sensitivities as well as the impact of other important factors that affect tourist flows, such as the location of markets and socio-political factors. Given the non-stationary but cointegrated nature of the panel data, panel cointegration estimation techniques are employed. The results show that tourists are sensitive to price changes in South Africa and also to tourism price changes in competing destinations. The level of development, tourism infrastructure, distance (or transportation costs), common border and language are also found to affect arrivals. The results also indicate the need to conduct estimation by regional groupings for a better understanding of different markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Boopen Seetanah & Ramesh Durbarry & J.F. Nicolas Ragodoo, 2010. "Using the Panel Cointegration Approach to Analyse the Determinants of Tourism Demand in South Africa," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(3), pages 715-729, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:16:y:2010:i:3:p:715-729
    DOI: 10.5367/000000010792278437
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5367/000000010792278437
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5367/000000010792278437?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Willem A. Naudé & Andrea Saayman, 2005. "Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: A Panel Data Regression Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 365-391, September.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
    3. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    4. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    5. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-153, February.
    6. M. Thea Sinclair, 1997. "Tourism and Economic Development: A Survey," Studies in Economics 9703, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    7. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    8. Tang, John C. S. & Rochananond, Narisara, 1990. "Attractiveness as a tourist destination: A comparative study of Thailand and selected countries," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 229-236.
    9. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    10. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
    11. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    13. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Fuleky & Carl S. Bonham & Qianxue Zhao, 2013. "Estimating Demand Elasticities in Non-Stationary Panels: The Case of Hawaii's Tourism Industry," Working Papers 201314, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    2. Wamboye, Evelyn F. & Nyaronga, Peter John & Sergi, Bruno S., 2020. "What are the determinant of international tourism in Tanzania?," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    3. Sylvain Petit & Neelu Seetaram, 2018. "Measuring the Effect of Revealed Cultural Preferences on Tourism Exports," Post-Print hal-02133249, HAL.
    4. Ogechi Adeola & Olaniyi Evans, 2020. "ICT, infrastructure, and tourism development in Africa," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 97-114, February.
    5. Jitendra Sharma & Subrata Kumar Mitra, 2021. "Asymmetric relationship between tourist arrivals and employment," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 952-970, August.
    6. repec:hae:wpaper:2013-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Armand Viljoen & Andrea Saayman & Melville Saayman, 2019. "Determinants influencing inbound arrivals to Africa," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(6), pages 856-883, September.
    8. Muhammad Amin Hasan & Mr. Abdullah & Muhammad Arsalan Hashmi & Ali Sajid, 2022. "International Remittances and International Tourism Development in South Asia: The Moderating Role of Political Stability," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 177-187.
    9. Manuel González-Gómez, 2022. "European outbound tourism expansion on the islands of Cape Verde," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 1129-1150, June.
    10. Recep Ulucak & Ali Gökhan Yücel & Salih Çağrı İlkay, 2020. "Dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey: Panel data analysis using gravity model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1394-1414, December.
    11. Nicolau, Juan Luis, 2011. "El efecto de la participación en actividades de ocio sobre la influencia de la distancia en la elección de destinos/When the Enrollment in Recreational Activities Changes Distance Sensitivity to Desti," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 803-824, Diciembre.
    12. Georges Harb & Charbel Bassil, 2020. "Terrorism and inbound tourism: Does immigration have a moderating effect?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 500-518, May.
    13. Hassani, Hossein & Webster, Allan & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Heravi, Saeed, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Tourist arrivals using optimal Singular Spectrum Analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 322-335.
    14. Tarik Dogru & Umit Bulut & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk, 2021. "Modeling tourism demand: Theoretical and empirical considerations for future research," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 874-889, June.
    15. Omkar Joshi & Neelam C. Poudyal & Lincoln R. Larson, 2017. "The influence of sociopolitical, natural, and cultural factors on international tourism growth: a cross-country panel analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 825-838, June.
    16. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2022. "Gravity models for tourism demand modeling: Empirical review and outlook," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1358-1409, December.
    17. Muhammad Asif Khan & József Popp & Mirza Nouman Ali Talib & Zoltán Lakner & Muhammad Atif Khan & Judit Oláh, 2020. "Asymmetric Impact of Institutional Quality on Tourism Inflows Among Selected Asian Pacific Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, February.
    18. Charbel Bassil & Ghialy Yap, 2024. "Can immigration moderate the adverse effects of political instability on international tourism? A case study of Australia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(2), pages 477-497, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    2. Narayan, Seema & Nguyen, Tri Tung, 2016. "Does the trade gravity model depend on trading partners? Some evidence from Vietnam and her 54 trading partners," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 220-237.
    3. Cecilio R. Tamarit Escalona & Estrella Gómez, 2011. "The euro effect on trade: evidence in gravity equations using panel cointegration techniques," Working Papers. Serie EC 2011-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    4. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Prasert Chaitip & N. Rangaswamy, 2008. "A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Test of the Modeling International Tourism Demand in India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 8(1), pages 95-124.
    5. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Jittaporn Sriboonjit & Thanes Sriwichailamphan & Prasert Chaitip & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2010. "A Panel Cointegration Analysis: An Application To International Tourism Demand Of Thailand," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 10(3), pages 69-86.
    6. Neelu Seetaram & Sylvain Petit, 2012. "Panel data analysis in Tourism Research," Post-Print hal-01831529, HAL.
    7. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2009. "A Panel Cointegration Analysis: Thailand’s International Tourism Demand Model," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(1), pages 129-142.
    8. Raffaello Bronzini & Paolo Piselli, 2006. "Determinants of long-run regional productivity: the role of R&D, human capital and public infrastructure," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 597, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. José Abraham López Machuca & Jorge Eduardo Mendoza Cota, 2017. "Salarios, desempleo y productividad laboral en la industria manufacturera mexicana. (Wage, Unemployment and Labor Productivity in the Mexican Manufacturing Industry)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 185-228, October.
    10. repec:zbw:rwirep:0557 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Polemis, Michail & Fotis, Panagiotis, 2011. "Gasoline price asymmetries in the Euro Zone," MPRA Paper 32755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Responsiveness of Residential Electricity Demand in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegation and Causality Analysis," FCN Working Papers 8/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    13. Hosan, Shahadat & Rahman, Md Matiar & Karmaker, Shamal Chandra & Saha, Bidyut Baran, 2023. "Energy subsidies and energy technology innovation: Policies for polygeneration systems diffusion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    14. BADALYAN, Gohar & HERZFELD, Thomas & RAJCANIOVA, Miroslava, 2014. "Transport Infrastructure And Economic Growth: Panel Data Approach For Armenia, Georgia And Turkey," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 17(2), pages 1-10, October.
    15. Antonio Afonso & Hüseyin Sen & Ayse Kaya, 2021. "Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 235(1), pages 133-170, March.
    16. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2011. "The renewable energy consumption-growth nexus in Central America," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 343-347, January.
    17. Nicholas Apergis & Dan Constantin Danuletiu, 2014. "Renewable Energy and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Sign of Panel Long-Run Causality," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 578-587.
    18. Ronald MacDonald & Flávio Vieira, "undated". "A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth," Working Papers 2010_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    19. Nicoleta Mihaela Florea & Roxana Maria Bădîrcea & Ramona Costina Pîrvu & Alina Georgiana Manta & Marius Dalian Doran & Elena Jianu, 2020. "The impact of agriculture and renewable energy on climate change in Central and East European Countries," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 66(10), pages 444-457.
    20. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nasreen, Samia & Ling, Chong Hui & Sbia, Rashid, 2014. "Causality between trade openness and energy consumption: What causes what in high, middle and low income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 126-143.
    21. Michele FRATIANNI & Chang HOON HO, 2007. "On the Relationship Between RTA Expansion and Openness," Working Papers 288, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:16:y:2010:i:3:p:715-729. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.