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Dating and Synchronizing Tourism Growth Cycles

Author

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  • Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia

    (ESGHT, University of Algarve, Largo Eng° Sarrea Prado 21, 8500 Portimão, Portugal)

  • Paulo M.M. Rodrigues

    (University of Algarve, Faculty of Economics, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal)

Abstract

The authors use the non-parametric method proposed by Harding and Pagan (2003) to date tourism growth cycles. This study is among the first to use robust, transparent and replicable dating rules in the context of economic tourism activity cycles. On the basis of a cycle indicator function, the authors are able to establish a greater degree of cycle synchronization of tourism demand than that observed at the economic cycle level, and, by means of a recursive correlation coefficient, they conclude that this degree of cycle synchronization has increased over the years. To analyse the presence of a time lag between turning points of economic cycles and tourism demand, they suggest a lag concordance index. Observing cycles and producing dating indicator functions are important in examining potential asymmetric behaviour associated with tourism economic phases and are useful for forecasting purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2005. "Dating and Synchronizing Tourism Growth Cycles," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 501-515, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:11:y:2005:i:4:p:501-515
    DOI: 10.5367/000000005775108746
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cem Işık & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1344-1357, December.
    2. repec:cfe:wpcefa:2016_04 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
    4. Dogru, Tarik & Sirakaya-Turk, Ercan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2017. "Remodeling international tourism demand: Old theory and new evidence," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 47-55.
    5. Mayers, Sherry-Ann & Jackman, Mahalia, 2011. "Investigating the business cycle properties of tourist flows to Barbados," MPRA Paper 38646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kožić Ivan & Arčabić Vladimir & Sever Ivan, 2022. "Tourism and Business Cycles: Does the Relationship Fade Away?," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 25(1), pages 95-110.
    7. Gore, Surabhi & Borde, Nilesh & Desai, Purva Hegde & George, Babu, 2022. "A Structured Literature Review of the Tourism Area Life Cycle Concept," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20.
    8. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Gu, Xinhua & Wu, Jie & Guo, Haizhen & Li, Guoqiang, 2018. "Local tourism cycle and external business cycle," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-170.
    10. Andraz, Jorge M. & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2016. "Monitoring tourism flows and destination management: Empirical evidence for Portugal," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-7.
    11. Cláudia Duarte & Sónia Cabral, . "Nowcasting Portuguese tourism exports," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Robertico Croes & Jorge Ridderstaat, 2017. "The effects of business cycles on tourism demand flows in small island destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1451-1475, November.
    13. Wan, Shui Ki & Song, Haiyan, 2018. "Forecasting turning points in tourism growth," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 156-167.

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