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Does the Three-Point Rule Make Soccer More Exciting? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design

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  • Lee Yoong Hon
  • Rasyad A. Parinduri

Abstract

We examine whether the three-point rule—the increase in rewards for a win from two to three points that the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) adopted in 1995—makes Bundesliga games become more exciting. Using regression discontinuity design as the empirical strategy, we do not find evidence that the three-point rule makes games more decisive, increases the number of goals, or decreases goal differences. We only find some evidence that the three-point rule increases the second-half goals of losing first-half teams. Overall, our results suggest that, in the case of Bundesliga games, the three-point rule does not work as FIFA intended.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee Yoong Hon & Rasyad A. Parinduri, 2016. "Does the Three-Point Rule Make Soccer More Exciting? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(4), pages 377-395, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:17:y:2016:i:4:p:377-395
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002514531790
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rasyad A Parinduri & Yoong Hon Lee & Kung Ming Tiong, 2019. "The effects of bigger rewards in individual tournaments on efforts and risk taking: evidence from chess," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 979-995.
    3. Richard Duhautois & Romain Eyssautier, 2016. "La victoire à trois points dans le football a-t-elle rendu les équipes plus offensives ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 67(6), pages 1245-1254.
    4. Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 2021. "The Effect of League Design on Spectator Attendance: A Regression Discontinuity Design Approach," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(5), pages 514-545, June.
    5. Jan C. van Ours, 2024. "Non-Transitive Patterns in Long-Term Football Rivalries," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-031/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Vincent (Vincent Peter) Hogan & Patrick Massey, 2020. "Professional Rugby on the Celtic Fringe," Working Papers 202003, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    7. Scarf, Phil & Parma, Rishikesh & McHale, Ian, 2019. "On outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in sport: The case of international rugby union," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(2), pages 721-730.
    8. Gebrenegus Ghilagaber & Parfait Munezero, 2020. "Bayesian change-point modelling of the effects of 3-points-for-a-win rule in football," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 248-264, January.
    9. J. James Reade & Jan C. van Ours, 2024. "Consumer Perceptions Matter: A Case Study of an Anomaly in English Football," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2024-03, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    10. Vincenzo Alfano & Lorenzo Cicatiello & Giuseppe Lucio Gaeta & Michele Gallo & Francesca Rotondo, 2021. "Three is a Magic Number: Evidence on the Effects of the Application of the Three-Point Rule in Italy’s Serie A," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 329-356, April.
    11. Stefan Wagner, 2010. "Managerial succession and organizational performance-evidence from the German Soccer League," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 415-430.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    three-point rule; soccer; regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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