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The fluctuating default risk of Australian banks

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  • David E Allen
  • Robert Powell

Abstract

Australian banks are widely considered to have fared far better during the Global Financial Crisis than their global counterparts, continuing to display solid earnings, good capitalization and strong credit ratings. Nonetheless, Australian banks experienced significant deterioration in the market values of assets. We use the KMV/Merton structural methodology, which incorporates market asset values, to examine default probabilities of Australian banks, making extensive international comparisons. We also modify the model to incorporate conditional probability of default, which measures extreme credit risk. We find that, during the Global Financial Crisis, based on extreme asset value fluctuations, Australian bank default probabilities fare only slightly better than their global counterparts. JEL Classification: G01, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • David E Allen & Robert Powell, 2012. "The fluctuating default risk of Australian banks," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(2), pages 297-325, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:37:y:2012:i:2:p:297-325
    DOI: 10.1177/0312896211432369
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    Cited by:

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    3. Kabir, Md. Nurul & Worthington, Andrew & Gupta, Rakesh, 2015. "Comparative credit risk in Islamic and conventional bank," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 327-353.
    4. Vo, D.H. & Pham, B.V.-N. & Pham, T.V.-T. & McAleer, M.J., 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in an Emerging Market," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    5. Carbajal-De-Nova, Carolina & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2019. "On the paradigm shift of asset pricing models, before and after the global financial crisis: a literature review," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 15(29), pages 7-38, Primer se.
    6. Searat Ali & Benjamin Liu & Jen Je Su, 2022. "Does corporate governance have a differential effect on downside and upside risk?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(9-10), pages 1642-1695, October.
    7. Williams, Barry, 2016. "The impact of non-interest income on bank risk in Australia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 16-37.
    8. Duc Hong Vo & Binh Ninh Vo Pham & Chi Minh Ho & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in Vietnam," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, September.
    9. Mamiza Haq & Necmi K. Avkiran & Amine Tarazi, 2019. "Does market discipline impact bank charter value? The case for Australia and Canada," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 59(1), pages 253-276, March.
    10. Silvio Tarca & Marek Rutkowski, 2014. "Assessing the Basel II Internal Ratings-Based Approach: Empirical Evidence from Australia," Papers 1412.0064, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    11. Allen, David E. & McAleer, Michael & Powell, Robert J. & Singh, Abhay K., 2017. "Volatility Spillovers from Australia's major trading partners across the GFC," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 159-175.
    12. Katherine Uylangco & Siqiwen Li, 2016. "An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(4), pages 699-718, November.
    13. John Nkwoma Inekwe & Yi Jin & Maria Rebecca Valenzuela, 2018. "Global financial network and liquidity risk," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 43(4), pages 593-613, November.
    14. Duc Hong Vo & Quang Van Tuan & Trung Vu-Thanh Pham, 2019. "Sectoral Risks in Vietnam and Malaysia A Comparative Analysis," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(1), pages 62-87, March.
    15. Dinh, Dung V. & Powell, Robert J. & Vo, Duc H., 2021. "Forecasting corporate financial distress in the Southeast Asian countries: A market-based approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Angus Campbell & Daniel R. Smith, 2022. "An empirical investigation of the quality of value‐at‐risk disclosure in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 469-491, March.
    17. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Credit risk interdependence in global financial markets: Evidence from three regions using multiple and partial wavelet approaches," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2016. "Emerging trends in Asia-Pacific finance research: A review of recent influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 66-76.
    19. Pham Vo Ninh, Binh & Do Thanh, Trung & Vo Hong, Duc, 2018. "Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction: An appropriate model for listed firms in Vietnam," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 616-624.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; credit risk; default; financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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