IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/ausman/v31y2006i2p207-234.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investigating the Performance of Alternative Default-Risk Models: Option-Based Versus Accounting-Based Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Philip Gharghori

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, PO Box 11E, Monash University, VIC 3800.)

  • Howard Chan

    (Department of Finance, University of Melbourne, VIC 3010.)

  • Robert Faff

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, PO Box 11E, Monash University, VIC 3800.)

Abstract

In this paper we evaluate the performance of three alternate default-risk models, seeking to find that measure which performs best, using a comprehensive sample drawn from the Australian equities market. The first two models are option-based models and are derived from Merton's (1974) insight that equity can be viewed as a call option on a firm's assets. In the first model, equity is modelled as a standard call option. In the second model, equity is modelled as a path-dependent barrier option. The third model is created using accounting ratios and is similar to Altman's (1968) Z-Score. To assess which of the models is superior, we consider variations of each model and then rely on prediction-oriented tests that focus on whether a firm subsequently defaults. Our results show that the option-based models clearly outperform their accounting ratio counterparts. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the option-based models are very successful at ranking firms by default probability. It is noteworthy that the performances of the option-based models are difficult to distinguish from each other.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Gharghori & Howard Chan & Robert Faff, 2006. "Investigating the Performance of Alternative Default-Risk Models: Option-Based Versus Accounting-Based Approaches," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 31(2), pages 207-234, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:31:y:2006:i:2:p:207-234
    DOI: 10.1177/031289620603100203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/031289620603100203
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/031289620603100203?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    2. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    3. Lincoln, Mervyn, 1984. "An empirical study of the usefulness of accounting ratios to describe levels of insolvency risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 321-340, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richardson, Grant & Taylor, Grantley & Lanis, Roman, 2015. "The impact of financial distress on corporate tax avoidance spanning the global financial crisis: Evidence from Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 44-53.
    2. Chia-Ling Chao & Shwu-Min Horng, 2013. "Asset write-offs discretion and accruals management in Taiwan: the role of corporate governance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 41-74, January.
    3. Abinzano, Isabel & Gonzalez-Urteaga, Ana & Muga, Luis & Sanchez, Santiago, 2020. "Performance of default-risk measures: the sample matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Taein Kwon & Sanghyo Lee & Jaejun Kim, 2013. "The characteristics of changes in construction companies to become insolvent by size following macroeconomic fluctuations," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 082-092.
    5. Rose Kenney & Gianni La Cava & David Rodgers, 2016. "Why Do Companies Fail?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Maria H. Kim & Graham Partington, 2015. "Dynamic forecasts of financial distress of Australian firms," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(1), pages 135-160, February.
    7. Dionne, Georges & Laajimi, Sadok, 2012. "On the determinants of the implied default barrier," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 395-408.
    8. Alexeev, Michael & Kim, Jounghyeon, 2012. "Bankruptcy and institutions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 676-678.
    9. Emma L. Schultz & David T. Tan & Kathleen D. Walsh, 2017. "Corporate governance and the probability of default," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57, pages 235-253, April.
    10. Isabel Abinzano & Pilar Corredor & Beatriz Martinez, 2021. "Does family ownership always reduce default risk?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4025-4060, September.
    11. Jie Dai & Shenna Lapointe, 2010. "Discerning the Impact of Derivatives on Asset Risk: The Case of Canadian Banks," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(5), pages 405-433, December.
    12. Gharghori, Philip & Chan, Howard & Faff, Robert, 2009. "Default risk and equity returns: Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 580-593, November.
    13. Abinzano, Isabel & Corredor, Pilar & Mansilla-Fernández, José Manuel, 2022. "Sovereign debt holdings and banks’ credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    14. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana & Martínez, Beatriz, 2020. "The role of internal corporate governance mechanisms on default risk: A systematic review for different institutional settings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Abinzano, Isabel & Gonzalez-Urteaga, Ana & Muga, Luis & Sanchez, Santiago, 2022. "Lagged accuracy in credit-risk measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    16. He Huang & Ye Ye, 2021. "Rethinking capital structure decision and corporate social responsibility in response to COVID‐19," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4757-4788, September.
    17. Suparatana Tanthanongsakkun & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2008. "Explaining Credit Ratings of Australian Companies—An Application of the Merton Model," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 33(2), pages 261-275, December.
    18. Li-Su Huang, 2022. "Directors and officers liability insurance and default risk," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(2), pages 375-408, April.
    19. Nirali Singh & Oriol Amat, 2020. "Detecting accounting fraud using quantitative techniques," Economics Working Papers 1738, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    20. Ali, Searat & Liu, Benjamin & Su, Jen Je, 2018. "Does corporate governance quality affect default risk? The role of growth opportunities and stock liquidity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 422-448.
    21. Lanlan Liu & Dan Luo & Liang Han, 2019. "Default risk, state ownership and the cross-section of stock returns: evidence from China," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 933-966, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philip Gharghori & Howard Chan & Robert Faff, 2007. "Are the Fama-French Factors Proxying Default Risk?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(2), pages 223-249, December.
    2. Tanthanongsakkun Suparatana & Pitt David & Treepongkaruna Sirimon, 2009. "A Comparison of Corporate Bankruptcy Models in Australia: The Merton vs. Accounting-based Models," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Giordani, Paolo & Jacobson, Tor & Schedvin, Erik von & Villani, Mattias, 2014. "Taking the Twists into Account: Predicting Firm Bankruptcy Risk with Splines of Financial Ratios," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 1071-1099, August.
    4. Richardson, Grant & Taylor, Grantley & Lanis, Roman, 2015. "The impact of financial distress on corporate tax avoidance spanning the global financial crisis: Evidence from Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 44-53.
    5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    6. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.
    7. Sandrine Lardic & Claire Gauthier, 2003. "Un modèle multifactoriel des spreads de crédit : estimation sur panels complets et incomplets," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 159(3), pages 53-69.
    8. Hu, Xiaolu & Shi, Jing & Wang, Lafang & Yu, Jing, 2020. "Foreign ownership in Chinese credit ratings industry: Information revelation or certification?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    9. Andres, Christian & Cumming, Douglas & Karabiber, Timur & Schweizer, Denis, 2014. "Do markets anticipate capital structure decisions? — Feedback effects in equity liquidity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 133-156.
    10. Lin, Hsiou-Wei William & Lo, Huai-Chun & Wu, Ruei-Shian, 2016. "Modeling default prediction with earnings management," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 306-322.
    11. Wen Su, 2021. "Default Distances Based on the CEV-KMV Model," Papers 2107.10226, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    12. Meles, Antonio & Salerno, Dario & Sampagnaro, Gabriele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo & Zhang, Jianing, 2023. "The influence of green innovation on default risk: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 692-710.
    13. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2017. "Understanding transactions prices in the credit default swaps market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-27.
    14. Jason J. Constable & David R. Woodliff, 1994. "Predicting Corporate Failure Using Publicly Available Information," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 4(7), pages 13-27, May.
    15. Alexey Litvinenko, 2023. "A Comparative Analysis of Altman's Z-Score and T. Jury's Cash-Based Credit Risk Models with The Application to The Production Company and The Data for The Years 2016-2022," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 518-553, September.
    16. Liang Tan & Santhosh Ramalingegowda & Yong Yu, 2022. "Third-Party Consequences of Changes in Managerial Fiduciary Duties: The Case of Auditors’ Going Concern Opinions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 1556-1572, February.
    17. Evan Dudley & Niclas Andrén & Håkan Jankensgård, 2022. "How do firms hedge in financial distress?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1324-1351, July.
    18. Trueck, Stefan & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2008. "Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123736833.
    19. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    20. Michael Halling & Evelyn Hayden, 2008. "Bank failure prediction: a two-step survival time approach," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 56th ISI Session, Lisbon, August 2007, volume 28, pages 48-73, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DEFAULT-RISK MODELS; DEFAULT PREDICTION;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:31:y:2006:i:2:p:207-234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.agsm.edu.au .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.