IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0219242.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal downscaling of global population and income scenarios for the United States

Author

Listed:
  • David N Wear
  • Jeffrey P Prestemon

Abstract

Downscaled climate projections need to be linked to downscaled projections of population and economic growth to fully develop implications for land, natural resources, and ecosystems for future scenarios. We develop an empirical spatiotemporal approach for jointly projecting population and income at the county scale in the United States that is consistent with neoclassical economic growth theory and overlapping labor markets and that accounts for labor migration and spatial spillovers. Downscaled projections generated for the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways used to support global scenario analysis generally show growth focused around relatively few centers especially in the southeast and western regions, with some areas in the Midwest and northeast experiencing population declines. Results are consistent with economic growth theory and with historical trends in population change and convergence of per capita personal income across US counties.

Suggested Citation

  • David N Wear & Jeffrey P Prestemon, 2019. "Spatiotemporal downscaling of global population and income scenarios for the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-19, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0219242
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0219242
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0219242
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0219242&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0219242?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X., 1996. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1325-1352, June.
    2. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    3. Alan Manning & Barbara Petrongolo, 2017. "How Local Are Labor Markets? Evidence from a Spatial Job Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2877-2907, October.
    4. Croissant, Yves & Millo, Giovanni, 2008. "Panel Data Econometrics in R: The plm Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i02).
    5. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    6. Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1997. "Growth and Convergence in Multi-country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 357-392, July-Aug..
    7. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    8. Diego Firmino Costa da Silva & J. Paul Elhorst & Raul da Mota Silveira Neto, 2017. "Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 894-908, June.
    9. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    10. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    11. Andrew T. Young & Matthew J. Higgins & Daniel Levy, 2008. "Sigma Convergence versus Beta Convergence: Evidence from U.S. County‐Level Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1083-1093, August.
    12. Higgins, Matthew J. & Levy, Daniel & Young, Andrew T., 2006. "Growth and Convergence across the United States: Evidence from County-Level Data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 88(4), pages 671-681.
    13. Detlef Vuuren & Timothy Carter, 2014. "Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 415-429, February.
    14. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "Unequal We Stand: An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in the United States: 1967-2006," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(1), pages 15-51, January.
    15. Johnson, Paul A. & Takeyama, Lisa N., 2001. "Initial conditions and economic growth in the US states," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 919-927, May.
    16. Ian Hardie & Peter Parks & Peter Gottleib & David Wear, 2000. "Responsiveness of Rural and Urban Land Uses to Land Rent Determinants in the U.S. South," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 76(4), pages 659-673.
    17. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1993. "Solow and States: Capital Accumulation, Productivity, and Economic Growth," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 46(4), pages 425-439, December.
    18. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1993. "Solow and States: Capital Accumulation, Productivity, and Economic Growth," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 46(4), pages 425-39, December.
    19. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    20. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    21. Anselin, Luc, 2002. "Under the hood : Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 247-267, November.
    22. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    23. Tsang, Eric W. K., 2014. "Old and New," Management and Organization Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 390-390, November.
    24. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Do Economies Converge? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 384-388, August.
    25. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Koch, Johannes & Leimbach, Marian, 2023. "SSP economic growth projections: Major changes of key drivers in integrated assessment modelling," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    2. Evan B Brooks & John W Coulston & Kurt H Riitters & David N Wear, 2020. "Using a hybrid demand-allocation algorithm to enable distributional analysis of land use change patterns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-21, October.
    3. Keith A. Cherkauer & Laura C. Bowling & Kyuhyun Byun & Indrajeet Chaubey & Natalie Chin & Darren L. Ficklin & Alan F. Hamlet & Stephen J. Kines & Charlotte I. Lee & Ram Neupane & Garett W. Pignotti & , 2021. "Climate change impacts and strategies for adaptation for water resource management in Indiana," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-20, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.
    2. Stephen Dobson & Carlyn Ramlogan & Eric Strobl, 2006. "Why Do Rates Of Β‐Convergence Differ? A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(2), pages 153-173, May.
    3. ?gel de la Fuente, "undated". "Convergence Across Countries And Regions: Theory And Empirics," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 447.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    4. Angel De la Fuente, 2010. "Infrastructures and productivity: an updated survey," Working Papers 1018, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    5. Steven Yamarik, 2011. "Human capital and state-level economic growth: what is the contribution of schooling?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 195-211, August.
    6. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Doris A. Oberdabernig & Patrick Tomberger, 2019. "Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Bayesian Robust Structural Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1265-1286, August.
    7. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    8. Young, Andrew T. & Higgins, Matthew J. & Levy, Daniel, 2013. "Heterogeneous Convergence," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 120(2), pages 238-241.
    9. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2008. "Modeling Technology and Technological Change in Manufacturing: How do Countries Differ?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    10. Osvaldo Lagares, 2016. "Capital, Economic Growth and Relative Income Differences in Latin America," Discussion Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
    11. Jean-Louis ARCAND & Béatrice D'HOMBRES, 2002. "Explaining the Negative Coefficient Associated with Human Capital in Augmented Solow Growth Regressions," Working Papers 200227, CERDI.
    12. Stratford Douglas & Anne Walker, 2017. "Coal Mining And The Resource Curse In The Eastern United States," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 568-590, September.
    13. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-69.
    14. Almeida, Rubiane Daniele Cardoso de & Moreira, Tito Belchior S. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2023. "Demographic aspects and regional income convergence in Brazil: a panel data approach," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    15. Jesús Rodríguez‐López & Diego Martínez‐López & Diego Romero‐Ávila, 2009. "Persistence of inequalities across the Spanish regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(4), pages 841-862, November.
    16. T. M. Tonmoy Islam & Jenny Minier & James P. Ziliak, 2015. "On Persistent Poverty in a Rich Country," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(3), pages 653-678, January.
    17. Lehmann, Hartmut & Silvagni, Maria Giulia, 2013. "Is There Convergence of Russia's Regions? Exploring the Empirical Evidence: 1995–2010," IZA Discussion Papers 7603, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Tobias Hagen & Philipp Mohl, 2011. "Econometric Evaluation of EU Cohesion Policy: A Survey," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Martín-Mayoral, Fernando, 2008. "¿Existe convergencia entre los países de América Latina? [Exist convergence across Latinamerican countries]," MPRA Paper 16039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Yudon, Y. & Weeks, M., 2000. "Provincial Income Convergence in China, 1953-1997: a Panel Data Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0010, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0219242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.