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Born at the Wrong Time: Selection Bias in the NHL Draft

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  • Robert O Deaner
  • Aaron Lowen
  • Stephen Cobley

Abstract

Relative age effects (RAEs) occur when those who are relatively older for their age group are more likely to succeed. RAEs occur reliably in some educational and athletic contexts, yet the causal mechanisms remain unclear. Here we provide the first direct test of one mechanism, selection bias, which can be defined as evaluators granting fewer opportunities to relatively younger individuals than is warranted by their latent ability. Because RAEs are well-established in hockey, we analyzed National Hockey League (NHL) drafts from 1980 to 2006. Compared to those born in the first quarter (i.e., January–March), those born in the third and fourth quarters were drafted more than 40 slots later than their productivity warranted, and they were roughly twice as likely to reach career benchmarks, such as 400 games played or 200 points scored. This selection bias in drafting did not decrease over time, apparently continues to occur, and reduces the playing opportunities of relatively younger players. This bias is remarkable because it is exhibited by professional decision makers evaluating adults in a context where RAEs have been widely publicized. Thus, selection bias based on relative age may be pervasive.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert O Deaner & Aaron Lowen & Stephen Cobley, 2013. "Born at the Wrong Time: Selection Bias in the NHL Draft," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-7, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0057753
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0057753
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    Cited by:

    1. Justin Sims & Vittorio Addona, 2016. "Hurdle Models and Age Effects in the Major League Baseball Draft," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(7), pages 672-687, October.
    2. Alessandro Pluchino & Alessio Emanuele Biondo & Andrea Rapisarda, 2018. "Talent Versus Luck: The Role Of Randomness In Success And Failure," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03n04), pages 1-31, May.
    3. Christian Thue Bjørndal & Live S Luteberget & Kevin Till & Simen Holm, 2018. "The relative age effect in selection to international team matches in Norwegian handball," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Sergio J Ibáñez & Aitor Mazo & Juarez Nascimento & Javier García-Rubio, 2018. "The Relative Age Effect in under-18 basketball: Effects on performance according to playing position," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(7), pages 1-11, July.
    5. Alex Bryson & Rafael Gomez & Tingting Zhang, 2017. "All-Star or Benchwarmer? Relative Age, Cohort Size and Career Success in the NHL," Sports Economics, Management, and Policy, in: Bernd Frick (ed.), Breaking the Ice, pages 57-91, Springer.
    6. Javier Brazo-Sayavera & María Asunción Martínez-Valencia & Lisa Müller & Georgios Andronikos & Russell J J Martindale, 2018. "Relative age effects in international age group championships: A study of Spanish track and field athletes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(4), pages 1-11, April.
    7. Benito Perez-Gonzalez & Alvaro Fernandez-Luna & Daniel Castillo & Pablo Burillo, 2020. "Are European Soccer Players Worth More If They Are Born Early in the Year? Relative Age Effect on Player Market Value," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-10, May.
    8. Youwei Wang & Yuxin Chen & Yi Qian, 2018. "The Causal Link between Relative Age Effect and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from 17 Million Users across 49 Years on Taobao," NBER Working Papers 25318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Fumarco, Luca & Gibbs, Benjamin & Jarvis, Jonathan & Rossi, Giambattista, 2016. "The Relative Age Effect Reversal among NHL Elite," MPRA Paper 75691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Luca Fumarco & Benjamin G Gibbs & Jonathan A Jarvis & Giambattista Rossi, 2017. "The relative age effect reversal among the National Hockey League elite," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, August.
    11. Tobias Berger & Frank Daumann, 2021. "Anchoring bias in the evaluation of basketball players: A closer look at NBA draft decision‐making," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1248-1262, July.
    12. Michael Romann & Stephen Cobley, 2015. "Relative Age Effects in Athletic Sprinting and Corrective Adjustments as a Solution for Their Removal," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-12, April.
    13. Alfonso de la Rubia & Christian Thue Bjørndal & Joaquín Sánchez-Molina & José María Yagüe & Jorge Lorenzo Calvo & Sergio Maroto-Izquierdo, 2020. "The relationship between the relative age effect and performance among athletes in World Handball Championships," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, March.

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