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A Closer Look at the Relative Age Effect in the National Hockey League

Author

Listed:
  • Addona Vittorio

    (Macalester College)

  • Yates Philip A

    (Saint Michael’s College)

Abstract

At young ages, a few extra months of development can make a big difference in size, strength, and athletic ability. A child who turns 5 years old in January will be nearly 20% older by the time a child born in December has their 5th birthday. In many sports, including hockey, children born in the early months of the calendar year get noticed by their coaches because of the superiority they demonstrate due to their age advantage. As a result, boys born early in the year are more likely to reach the professional ranks of the National Hockey League (NHL). The phenomenon just described has been labeled the relative age effect (RAE). Previous work studying the RAE in the NHL has focused on individual NHL seasons, often encompassing many of the same players across multiple seasons. We investigate the RAE using complete data on every player who has ever played in the NHL. We focus the majority of our analysis on Canadian born players and examine the RAE across hockey position and hall-of-fame status. For the first time, we provide strong evidence of when the RAE began to manifest itself in Canada. Our change point analysis indicates that the RAE began for players born since 1951. Finally, we make a case for what initiated this change in the way young hockey players develop, particularly in Canada, which produced over 90% of NHL players at that time.

Suggested Citation

  • Addona Vittorio & Yates Philip A, 2010. "A Closer Look at the Relative Age Effect in the National Hockey League," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(4), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:6:y:2010:i:4:n:9
    DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1227
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joe H. Sullivan, 2002. "Estimating the Locations of Multiple Change Points in the Mean," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 289-296, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fumarco, Luca & Gibbs, Benjamin & Jarvis, Jonathan & Rossi, Giambattista, 2016. "The Relative Age Effect Reversal among NHL Elite," MPRA Paper 75691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Justin Sims & Vittorio Addona, 2016. "Hurdle Models and Age Effects in the Major League Baseball Draft," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(7), pages 672-687, October.
    3. Brander James A. & Egan Edward J. & Yeung Louisa, 2014. "Estimating the effects of age on NHL player performance," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 241-259, June.
    4. Luca Fumarco & Benjamin G Gibbs & Jonathan A Jarvis & Giambattista Rossi, 2017. "The relative age effect reversal among the National Hockey League elite," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, August.
    5. Tukiainen, Janne & Takalo, Tuomas & Hulkkonen, Topi, 2019. "Relative age effects in political selection," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 50-63.
    6. James A. Brander & Edward J. Egan, 2018. "Seniority Wages in the National Hockey League," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 84-96, January.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Robert O Deaner & Aaron Lowen & Stephen Cobley, 2013. "Born at the Wrong Time: Selection Bias in the NHL Draft," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-7, February.
    9. Besters, Lucas, 2018. "Economics of professional football," Other publications TiSEM d9e6b9b7-a17b-4665-9cca-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Tukiainen, Janne & Takalo, Tuomas & Hulkkonen, Topi, 2019. "Relative age effects in political selection," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 50-63.

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