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Exchange rate response to economic policy uncertainty: evidence beyond asymmetry

Author

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  • Bisharat Hussain Chang

    (Sukkur IBA University)

  • Omer Faruk Derindag

    (Inonu University, Battalgazi)

  • Nuri Hacievliyagil

    (Inonu University, Battalgazi)

  • Mehmet Canakci

    (Inonu University, Battalgazi)

Abstract

Recent studies have examined the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and exchange rate. We contribute to this literature by considering the effect of minor positive and major positive changes as well as minor negative and major negative changes in the economic policy uncertainties on the exchange rates. In this regard, we use a recently developed multiple asymmetric threshold nonlinear ARDL model along with Granger causality in quantile test. Our estimates support the asymmetric effect in three countries only when an asymmetric ARDL model is used. However, these estimates support asymmetric effects for all the sample countries when the multiple asymmetric threshold nonlinear ARDL model is used. Moreover, the effect varies across various quantiles when Granger causality in quantile test is used. Overall, the extended model helps us to examine more minutely the impact of EPU and GEPU on the exchange rate in G7 countries. The results of this study can be useful for the central banks to devise appropriate policies to intervene in the foreign exchange market.

Suggested Citation

  • Bisharat Hussain Chang & Omer Faruk Derindag & Nuri Hacievliyagil & Mehmet Canakci, 2022. "Exchange rate response to economic policy uncertainty: evidence beyond asymmetry," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:9:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-022-01372-5
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-022-01372-5
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    2. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Khalil Ahmed Channa & Emmanuel Uche & Osamah Ibrahim Khalaf & Osamah Waheed Ali, 2022. "Analyzing the impacts of terrorism on innovation activity: A cross country empirical study," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 26(Special), pages 124-161, December.
    3. Huo, Dongxia & Bagadeem, Salim & Elsherazy, Tarek Abbas & Nasnodkar, Siddhesh Prabhu & Kalra, Akash, 2023. "Renewable energy consumption and the rising effect of climate policy uncertainty: Fresh policy analysis from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1459-1474.
    4. Lu, Man & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Salman, Asma & Razzaq, Muthanna G. Abdul & Uddin, Mohammed Ahmar, 2023. "Time varying connectedness between foreign exchange markets and crude oil futures prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    5. Elena B. Zavyalova & Vera A. Volokhina & Marija A. Troyanskaya & Yulia I. Dubova, 2023. "A humanistic model of corporate social responsibility in e-commerce with high-tech support in the artificial intelligence economy," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Le, Cao Hoang Anh & Shan, Yaowen & Taylor, Stephen, 2024. "International economic policy uncertainty and analysts' earnings forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Pastorek, Daniel, 2023. "Euro area uncertainty and Euro exchange rate volatility: Exploring the role of transnational economic policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    8. Eman Elish, 2022. "Political and productive capacity characteristics as outward foreign direct investment push factors from BRICS countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.

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