IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/108017.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic policy uncertainty in banking: a literature review

Author

Listed:
  • Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu

Abstract

This paper is a survey of the most important research in the economic policy uncertainty literature. Economic policy uncertainty, although still under-researched relative to mainstream topics in economics and finance, has recently received increased scholarly attention. Through synthesizing common themes in the literature, the paper highlights the progress made so far and suggest some avenues for future research which allows future researchers to position their research and differentiate themselves from other studies in the literature. The paper finds that economic policy uncertainty affects banks through a reduction in credit supply and loan re-pricing. High economic policy uncertainty compel bank managers to discretionary distort bank financial reporting in ways that help them to mitigate the depressing effect of economic policy uncertainty on their profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty in banking: a literature review," MPRA Paper 108017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:108017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/108017/1/MPRA_paper_108017.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-393, July.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    3. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & McAleer, Michael, 2015. "Advances in financial risk management and economic policy uncertainty: An overview," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-7.
    4. Çolak, Gönül & Durnev, Art & Qian, Yiming, 2017. "Political Uncertainty and IPO Activity: Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2523-2564, December.
    5. Baker, Scott R. & Bloom, Nicholas, 2013. "Does uncertainty reduce growth? Using disasters as natural experiments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121906, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    7. Melissa B. Frye & Duong T. Pham, 2020. "Economic Policy Uncertainty And Board Monitoring: Evidence From Ceo Turnovers," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 675-703, August.
    8. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Hu, Shiwei & Gong, Di, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, prudential regulation and bank lending," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 373-378.
    10. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2003. "Option Value, Policy Uncertainty, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision," HWWA Discussion Papers 234, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    11. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    12. D'Mello, Ranjan & Toscano, Francesca, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and short-term financing: The case of trade credit," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Kevin A. Hassett, 1999. "Tax Policy and Investment," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 53049, September.
    14. Gungoraydinoglu, Ali & Çolak, Gönül & Öztekin, Özde, 2017. "Political environment, financial intermediation costs, and financing patterns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 167-192.
    15. Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Koch, Christoffer, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 90-106.
    16. Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert, 2001. "Capital flight and the uncertainty of government policies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 377-381, June.
    17. Bradley, Daniel & Pantzalis, Christos & Yuan, Xiaojing, 2016. "Policy risk, corporate political strategies, and the cost of debt," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 254-275.
    18. Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2010. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    20. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    21. Arouri, Mohamed & Estay, Christophe & Rault, Christophe & Roubaud, David, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 136-141.
    22. Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from BRIC countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 189-200.
    23. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Brandice Canes-Wrone & Steven J. Davis & Jonathan Rodden, 2014. "Why Has US Policy Uncertainty Risen since 1960?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 56-60, May.
    24. Imen Dakhlaoui & Chaker Aloui, 2016. "The Interactive Relationship Between the US Economic Policy Uncertainty and BRIC Stock Markets," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 141-157.
    25. Colombo, Valentina, 2013. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 39-42.
    26. A Delios & W J Henisz, 2003. "Policy uncertainty and the sequence of entry by Japanese firms, 1980–1998," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 34(3), pages 227-241, May.
    27. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Figueres, Juan Manuel, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 31-34.
    28. Richard Borghesi & Kiyoung Chang, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm value: the mediating role of intangible assets and R&D," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(13), pages 1087-1090, June.
    29. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    30. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    31. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2017. "A Short Review of the Recent Literature on Uncertainty," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(1), pages 68-78, March.
    32. Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Ersan, Oguz & Demir, Ender, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank credit growth: Evidence from European banks," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
    33. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    34. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.
    35. Dang, Dandan & Fang, Hongsheng & He, Minyuan, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, tax quotas and corporate tax burden: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-1.
    36. Kiyoung Chang & Junyoup Lee & Hyeongsop Shim, 2019. "CEO Duality and Firm Performance: Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Mediate the Relation?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 877-891, December.
    37. He, Feng & Ma, Yaming & Zhang, Xiaojie, 2020. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate Innovation?–Evidence from China listed companies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 225-239.
    38. Mara Faccio, 2006. "Politically Connected Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 369-386, March.
    39. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1996. "Markets with endogenous uncertainty: theory and policy," MPRA Paper 8612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhu, Yun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and bank loan contracting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 281-286.
    41. Eaton, Jonathan & Rosen, Harvey S., 1980. "Labor supply, uncertainty, and efficient taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 365-374, December.
    42. Aastveit, Knut Are & Natvik, Gisle James & Sola, Sergio, 2017. "Economic uncertainty and the influence of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 50-67.
    43. Gissler, Stefan & Oldfather, Jeremy & Ruffino, Doriana, 2016. "Lending on hold: Regulatory uncertainty and bank lending standards," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 89-101.
    44. Fontaine, Idriss & Razafindravaosolonirina, Justinien & Didier, Laurent, 2018. "Chinese policy uncertainty shocks and the world macroeconomy: Evidence from STVAR," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-19.
    45. Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Ozili, Peterson, 2021. "Loan loss provisioning of US banks: Economic policy uncertainty and discretionary behavior," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 923-935.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Hashmi, Shujahat Haider & Bakhsh, Satar, 2022. "Non-linear nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 657-679.
    2. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Shahab, Yasir & Wang, Peng, 2023. "Geopolitical, economic uncertainty and bank risk: Do CEO power and board strength matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Jing Chen & Junxiong Fang & Chunqiu Zhang & Yi Zhou, 2023. "Homemade international diversification under economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 31-62, February.
    4. Fadekemi Chidinma Adeloye & Olayinka Olawoyin & Chinaemerem Daniel, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Financial Markets in the United State," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(6), pages 998-1016, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Le, Thai-Ha & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and credit growth: Evidence from a global sample," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    4. Quader, Syed Manzur, 2023. "The interplay between uncertainty, managerial decision making, and firm value: Evidence from Bangladesh," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cost of debt financing: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Ma, Huanyu & Hao, Dapeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial development, and financial constraints: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 368-386.
    7. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Examining the relationship between policy uncertainty and market uncertainty across the G7," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Christos Floros & Emilios Galariotis & Konstantinos Gkillas & Efstathios Magerakis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2024. "Time-varying firm cash holding and economic policy uncertainty nexus: a quantile regression approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(2), pages 859-895, October.
    10. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Lorenzo Neri & Antonella Russo, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 795-845, February.
    12. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Hashmi, Shujahat Haider & Bakhsh, Satar, 2022. "Non-linear nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 657-679.
    13. Fedorova, Elena & Ledyaeva, Svetlana & Drogovoz, Pavel & Nevredinov, Alexandr, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bankruptcy filings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Liosi, Konstantina, 2023. "The sources of economic uncertainty: Evidence from eurozone markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    15. Peng, Daoju & Colak, Gonul & Shen, Jianfu, 2023. "Lean against the wind: The effect of policy uncertainty on a firm's corporate social responsibility strategy," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Si, Deng-Kui & Zhuang, Jiali & Ge, Xinyu & Yu, Yong, 2024. "The nexus between trade policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    17. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    18. Biswas, Sonny & Zhai, Wei, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cross-border lending," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Chada, Swechha, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainties and institutional ownership in India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    20. Boulton, Thomas J., 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and international IPO underpricing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic policy uncertainty; banking; banks; uncertainty; index; news; government; tax code; inflation; elections.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:108017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.