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International economic policy uncertainty and analysts' earnings forecasts

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  • Le, Cao Hoang Anh
  • Shan, Yaowen
  • Taylor, Stephen

Abstract

We investigate the extent to which international economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impacts analysts' earnings forecasts. Using a sample of Australian firms, we demonstrate that EPU is positively associated with the size of forecast errors and the extent of forecast dispersion. Consistent with Australia being a relatively small but open economy, we show that this EPU effect extends beyond domestic EPU to include global and country-specific EPU, most notably Chinese and US EPU. The effect of international EPU is stronger for short-term forecasts, and for firms with higher growth prospects and profitability. However, the effect of Australian EPU is more pronounced for longer horizon forecasts and for firms in the resources and mining industries, and those with lower growth and profitability. Our results are consistent with heightened international EPU negatively impacting firms' information environment, with increased variation in market participants' beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Le, Cao Hoang Anh & Shan, Yaowen & Taylor, Stephen, 2024. "International economic policy uncertainty and analysts' earnings forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:85:y:2024:i:c:s0927538x24001549
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102403
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    Keywords

    Financial analysts; Earnings forecast; Economic policy uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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