IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aag/wpaper/v27y2023i2p75-98.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The External Exchange Rate Volatility Influence on The Trade Flows: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Model

Author

Listed:
  • Ennadifi Imane

    (Interdisciplinary Research Laboratory in Economics, Finance and Management of Organizations (LIREFMO), Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University, Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, FEZ, FEZ MEKNES, Morocco)

  • Bisharat Hussain Chang

    (Department of Business Administration, Sukkur IBA University, Sukkur, Sindh, Pakistan)

  • Tarek Abbas Elsherazy

    (University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, 16 Richmond St, Glasgow G1 1XQ, UK)

  • Wing-Keung Wong

    (Department of Finance, Fintech & Blockchain Research Center, and Big Data Research Center, Asia University, Taiwan. Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital Department of Economics and Finance, The Hang Seng University of Hong Kong)

  • Mohammed Ahmar Uddin

    (Department of Finance and Economics College of Commerce and Business Administration Dhofar University, Salalah, Dhofar, Oman)

Abstract

[Purpose] Major trade partners of China, including Germany, Korea, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Malaysia, and Mexico, are examined in the research to see how currency exchange rate variations affect everything for Germany, Korea, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Malaysia, and Mexico. Our study also extends the existing literature by investigating the influence of external instability on Chinese exports to the US. [Design/methodology/approach] To conduct this study’s analysis, we apply the bounds test technique to the co-integration and error correction model to examine the asymmetric influence of third-country exchange rate volatility on trade flows of China in the short-run and long-run effect through measuring with two approaches, ARDL and NARDL on bilateral trade among Korea, Germany, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Malaysia, and Mexico. [Findings] The investigation found that third-country exchange rate (China/USD) volatility has a varying influence on China’s exports to different countries, with short-term asymmetrical effects observed in Korea, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Malaysia. In the long run, only Korea and the United Kingdom show an asymmetric effect on China’s exports. These findings highlight the need to consider the impact of significant fluctuations in third-country exchange rate volatility before making relevant policies or decisions. [Originality/value] As far as we know, this is the first paper in the literature that employs quantitative models, analyzes the empirical data, and provides various insights which are helpful in the decision-making process concerning export strategies, exchange rates, and international trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Ennadifi Imane & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Tarek Abbas Elsherazy & Wing-Keung Wong & Mohammed Ahmar Uddin, 2023. "The External Exchange Rate Volatility Influence on The Trade Flows: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Model," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 27(2), pages 75-98, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aag:wpaper:v:27:y:2023:i:2:p:75-98
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://iads.site/the-external-exchange-rate-volatility-influence-on-the-trade-flows-evidence-from-nonlinear-ardl-model/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://iads.site/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/The-External-Exchange-Rate-Volatility-Influence-on-The-Trade-Flows-Evidence-from-Nonlinear-ARDL-Model.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Kaveepot Satawatananon, 2012. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between the US and Thailand," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 515-532, August.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Muhammad Aftab & Zaheer Abbas & Farrukh Nawaz Kayani, 2012. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on sectoral exports of Pakistan: an ARDL investigation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(3), pages 215-231, September.
    4. Qasim Raza Syed & Waseem Shahid Malik & Bisharat Hussain Chang, 2019. "Volatility Spillover Effect Of Federal Reserve’S Balance Sheet On The Financial And Goods Markets Of Indo-Pak Region," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(03), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Thomas C. Chiang & Zhuo Qiao & Wing-Keung Wong, 2010. "New evidence on the relation between return volatility and trading volume," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 502-515.
    6. Muhammad Aftab & Zaheer Abbas & Farrukh Nawaz Kayani, 2012. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on sectoral exports of Pakistan: an ARDL investigation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(3), pages 215-231, September.
    7. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Pervez Ahmed & Zafar Hayat, 2020. "Does Gold Act as a Hedge or a Safe Haven? Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 69-80.
    8. Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Raheel Gohar & Asma Salman & Emmanuel Uche & Omer Faruk Derindag & Bisharat Hussain Chang, 2023. "Does US Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Index Predict G7 Stock Returns? Evidence Beyond Symmetry," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(02), pages 1-16, June.
    11. Lam, Kin & Liu, Taisheng & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "A pseudo-Bayesian model in financial decision making with implications to market volatility, under- and overreaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 166-175, May.
    12. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September.
    13. Emmanuel Uche & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Raheel Gohar, 2022. "Consumption Optimization in G7 Countries: Evidence of Heterogeneous Asymmetry in Income and Price Differentials," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(01), pages 1-23, February.
    14. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Omer Faruk Derindag & Nuri Hacievliyagil & Mehmet Canakci, 2022. "Exchange rate response to economic policy uncertainty: evidence beyond asymmetry," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    15. Raheel Gohar & Mohamed Osman & Emmanuel Uche & P. A. Mary Auxilia & Bisharat Hussain Chang, 2022. "The Economic Policy Uncertainty Extreme Dynamics And Its Effect On The Exchange Rate," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(03), pages 1-22, September.
    16. Peter B. Clark, 1973. "Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, And The Level Of International Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(3), pages 302-313, September.
    17. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade: Evidence from global financial crisis and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 64-97, March.
    18. Omer Faruk Derindag & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Raheel Gohar & Wing-Keung Wong & Niaz Ahmed Bhutto, 2023. "Food prices response to global and national factors: Evidence beyond asymmetry," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 2187128-218, December.
    19. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad, 2017. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: New evidence from US-Malaysia trade at the industry level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-103.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jia Xu, 2012. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between U.S. and China: is there a third country effect," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(3), pages 555-586, July.
    21. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Niaz Ahmed Bhutto, 2019. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the US Exports: A New Evidence From Multiple Threshold Nonlinear ARDL Model," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, June.
    22. Hashmi, Shabir Mohsin & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Huang, Liangfang & Uche, Emmanuel, 2022. "Revisiting the relationship between oil prices, exchange rate, and stock prices: An application of quantile ARDL model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    23. Jiechen Tang & Songsak Sriboonchitta & Vicente Ramos & Wing-Keung Wong, 2016. "Modelling dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate using the copula-based GARCH model," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 876-894, July.
    24. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Raheel Gohar & Omer Faruk Derindag & Emmanuel Uche, 2022. "COVID-19, lockdown measures and their impact on food and healthcare prices: empirical evidence using a dynamic ARDL model," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 50(5), pages 1008-1026, September.
    25. Sharma, Chandan & Pal, Debdatta, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and India's cross-border trade: A pooled mean group and nonlinear cointegration approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 230-246.
    26. Viaene, Jean-Marie & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "International trade and exchange rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1311-1321, August.
    27. repec:eme:jcefts:v:5:y:2012:i:3:pp:215-231 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Cui, Moyang & Wong, Wing-Keung & Wisetsri, Worakamol & Mabrouk, Fatma & Muda, Iskandar & Li, Zeyun & Hassan, Marria, 2023. "Do oil, gold and metallic price volatilities prove gold as a safe haven during COVID-19 pandemic? Novel evidence from COVID-19 data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    29. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua & Abdul Fatah Che Hamat, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and ASEAN-4’s trade flows: is there a third country effect?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 91-117, January.
    30. Raheel Gohar & Salim Bagadeem & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Muyu Zong, 2022. "Do The Income And Price Changes Affect Consumption In The Emerging 7 Countries? Empirical Evidence Using Quantile Ardl Model," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(04), pages 1-24, December.
    31. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Niaz Hussain Ghumro, 2018. "Asymmetric Impact Of Exchange Rate Changes On The Trade Balance: Does Global Financial Crisis Matter?," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(04), pages 1-18, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lara Al-Haddad & Shafiq Al Abed & RaEd Kamal QaQish & Zyad Marashdeh & Abd Al-Salam Ahmad Al-Hamad, 2023. "Does Volatility in Air Pollution Index Affect Firm Financing Pattern?," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 27(4), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Lu, Man & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Salman, Asma & Razzaq, Muthanna G. Abdul & Uddin, Mohammed Ahmar, 2023. "Time varying connectedness between foreign exchange markets and crude oil futures prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    3. Shiying Chen & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Hu Fu & ShiQi Xie, 2024. "Dynamic analysis of the relationship between exchange rates and oil prices: a comparison between oil exporting and oil importing countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Andrej Privara & Raheel Gohar & Haitham M. Alzoubi & Akash Kalra & Mohammed Ahmar Uddin & Bisharat Hussain Chang, 2025. "Exploring exchange rate sensitivity to crude oil futures: A study of selected global economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huo, Dongxia & Bagadeem, Salim & Elsherazy, Tarek Abbas & Nasnodkar, Siddhesh Prabhu & Kalra, Akash, 2023. "Renewable energy consumption and the rising effect of climate policy uncertainty: Fresh policy analysis from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1459-1474.
    2. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Khalil Ahmed Channa & Emmanuel Uche & Osamah Ibrahim Khalaf & Osamah Waheed Ali, 2022. "Analyzing the impacts of terrorism on innovation activity: A cross country empirical study," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 26(Special), pages 124-161, December.
    3. Xiaohui GONG & Bisharat Hussain CHANG & Xi CHEN & Kaiyang ZHONG, 2023. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rates on Energy Demand in E7 Countries: New Evidence from Multiple Thresholds Nonlinear ARDL Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 125-142, June.
    4. Lu, Man & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Salman, Asma & Razzaq, Muthanna G. Abdul & Uddin, Mohammed Ahmar, 2023. "Time varying connectedness between foreign exchange markets and crude oil futures prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    5. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade: Evidence from global financial crisis and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 64-97, March.
    6. Chandan Sharma & Debdatta Pal, 2019. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Dampen Imports? Commodity-Level Evidence From India," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 696-718, October.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ahmed Usman & Sana Ullah, 2023. "Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade Between Pakistan and China," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 510-534, June.
    8. Sharma, Chandan & Pal, Debdatta, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and India's cross-border trade: A pooled mean group and nonlinear cointegration approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 230-246.
    9. Yusaku Nishimura & Bianxia Sun, 2018. "China’s Exchange-Rate Regime Reform and Trade Between China and the Eurozone," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 450-467, January.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2018. "A new perspective on the third-country effect: The case of Malaysia–US industry-level trade," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 607-637, August.
    11. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Omer Faruk Derindag & Nuri Hacievliyagil & Mehmet Canakci, 2022. "Exchange rate response to economic policy uncertainty: evidence beyond asymmetry," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Bisharat Hussain Chang, 2023. "Asymmetric effect of macroeconomic variables on the emerging stock indices: A quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1006-1024, January.
    13. Hashmi, Shabir Mohsin & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Huang, Liangfang & Uche, Emmanuel, 2022. "Revisiting the relationship between oil prices, exchange rate, and stock prices: An application of quantile ARDL model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Hashmi, Shabir Mohsin & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Rong, Li, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of COVID-19 pandemic on E7 stock indices: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Hurley, Dene T. & Papanikolaou, Nikolaos, 2021. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis of U.S.-China commodity trade dynamics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 454-467.
    16. Unggul Heriqbaldi & Miguel Angel Esquivias & Rossanto Dwi Handoyo & Alfira Cahyaning Rifami & Hilda Rohmawati, 2022. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows in Indonesia and ten main trade partners: asymmetric effects," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(4), pages 708-739, October.
    17. Chandan Sharma, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, June.
    18. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua, 2014. "Effect of exchange rate volatility on industry trade flows between Malaysia and China," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 626-655, August.
    19. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Niaz Ahmed Bhutto, 2019. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the US Exports: A New Evidence From Multiple Threshold Nonlinear ARDL Model," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, June.
    20. Obumneke Bob Muoneke & Kingsley Ikechukwu Okere & Favour Chidinma Onuoha, 2023. "Extreme exchange rate dynamics and export trade in the selected oil-exporting countries in Africa. Multiple asymmetric threshold non-linear ARDL approach," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 854-877, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Third country exchange rate volatility (TCV); exports; China; Autoregressive Distributive Lag model; Nonlinear ARDL model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aag:wpaper:v:27:y:2023:i:2:p:75-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vincent Pan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dfasitw.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.