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Economic Policy Uncertainty and Unemployment in the United States: A Nonlinear Approach

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  • Giovanni Caggiano
  • Efrem Castelnuovo
  • Juan Manuel Figueres

Abstract

We model U.S. post-WWII monthly data with a Smooth Transition VAR model and study the effects of an unanticipated increase in economic policy uncertainty on unemployment in recessions and expansions. We find the response of unemployment to be statistically and economically larger in recessions. A state-contingent forecast error variance decomposition analysis confirms that the contribution of EPU shocks to the volatility of unemployment at business cycle frequencies is markedly larger in recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2018. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Unemployment in the United States: A Nonlinear Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 7105, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7105
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nodari, Gabriela, 2014. "Financial regulation policy uncertainty and credit spreads in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-132.
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    7. Timo Teräsvirta & Yukai Yang, 2014. "Linearity and Misspecification Tests for Vector Smooth Transition Regression Models," CREATES Research Papers 2014-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. ., 2015. "Income distribution and the business cycle," Chapters, in: The New Economics of Income Distribution, chapter 5, pages 96-122, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic policy uncertainty shocks; unemployment dynamics; Smooth Transition Vector AutoRegressions; recessions; expansions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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