IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v19y2012i11p1065-1070.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Threshold effects in the relationships between USD and gold futures by panel smooth transition approach

Author

Listed:
  • Wo-Chiang Lee
  • Hui-Na Lin

Abstract

Using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, this study sets crude oil as threshold variable, and Volatility Index (VIX) and Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) for Emerging Market Index (MSCI-E) as control variables to investigate the nonlinear dynamic relationship between USD/yen and gold futures in the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX). Empirical results show that the transition function is a logistic type. In region 1, the price of crude oil is low. The sign of VIX is positive. USD/yen exerts negative impact on gold market due to the way that gold market functions as a factor of hedge against portfolio and geopolitical risk. In region 2, the price of crude oil is higher (the demand for crude oil may be stronger). The economy is prosperous; VIX turns low; USD/yen increases. Investors have more money from other financial markets to buy gold, thus, causing gold futures price to rise. Besides, gold is both a hedge and a safe haven for developing countries but not for emerging countries; therefore, the relationships between gold and MSCI-E are positive in both regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Wo-Chiang Lee & Hui-Na Lin, 2012. "Threshold effects in the relationships between USD and gold futures by panel smooth transition approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 1065-1070, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:11:p:1065-1070
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.613747
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13504851.2011.613747
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13504851.2011.613747?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    2. Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin, 2006. "Threshold Effects in the Public Capital Productivity: an International Panel Smooth Transition Approach," Post-Print halshs-00257487, HAL.
    3. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    4. Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2004. "Information Flow between Price Change and Trading Volume in Gold Futures Contracts," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(1), pages 45-56, April.
    5. Graham Smith, 2002. "Tests of the random walk hypothesis for London gold prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(10), pages 671-674.
    6. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    7. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Ramazan Sari & Bradley T. Ewing, 2009. "Relationships Among Strategic Commodities And With Financial Variables: A New Look," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(2), pages 251-264, April.
    8. Giam Quang Do & Michael Mcaleer & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2009. "Effects of international gold market on stock exchange volatility: evidence from asean emerging stock markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 599-610.
    9. Capie, Forrest & Mills, Terence C. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2005. "Gold as a hedge against the dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 343-352, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Raza, Naveed & Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Syed & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 290-301.
    2. Jain, Anshul & Biswal, P.C., 2016. "Dynamic linkages among oil price, gold price, exchange rate, and stock market in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 179-185.
    3. Naveed Raza & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Muhammad Shahbaz & Aviral kumar Tiwari, 2017. "Modeling the nexus between oil shocks, inflation and commodity prices: Do Asymmetries really matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2374-2383.
    4. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Does oil impact gold during COVID-19 and three other recent crises?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    5. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Omer Faruk Derindag & Nuri Hacievliyagil & Mehmet Canakci, 2022. "Exchange rate response to economic policy uncertainty: evidence beyond asymmetry," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ghodsi, Seyed Hesam & Hadzic, Muris, 2020. "Asymmetric causality between stock returns and usual hedges: An industry-level analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    7. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Oil and gold price dynamics in a multivariate cointegration framework," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 453-468, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2019. "Gold price and exchange rates: A panel smooth transition regression model for the G7 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 27-46.
    2. Takashi Miyazaki & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "Testing for causality between the gold return and stock market performance: evidence for ‘gold investment in case of emergency’," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 27-40, January.
    3. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2014. "Precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," Working Papers hal-01010516, HAL.
    4. Tiba, Sofien, 2019. "Modeling the nexus between resources abundance and economic growth: An overview from the PSTR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    6. Saia, Artjom, 2023. "Digitalization and CO2 emissions: Dynamics under R&D and technology innovation regimes," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Zhao, Yanping & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Nian, Rui, 2015. "Gold bubbles: When are they most likely to occur?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 17-23.
    8. Seleteng, Monaheng & Bittencourt, Manoel & van Eyden, Reneé, 2013. "Non-linearities in inflation–growth nexus in the SADC region: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 149-156.
    9. Ciner, Cetin & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Lucey, Brian M., 2013. "Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 202-211.
    10. Joe-Ming Lee, 2013. "Evidence from Business Strategy of Mutual Fund Managers after the Financial Crisis - Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model," Journal of Asian Business Strategy, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 48-58, March.
    11. Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., 2016. "Reexamining the relationship between inflation and growth: Do institutions matter in developing countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 332-351.
    12. Chakroun, Mohamed, 2009. "Health care expenditure and GDP: An international panel smooth transition approach," MPRA Paper 14322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010. "Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
    14. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Amine Lahiani & David Heller, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Post-Print hal-02012307, HAL.
    15. Ben Lahouel, Béchir & Bruna, Maria-Giuseppina & Ben Zaied, Younes, 2020. "The curvilinear relationship between environmental performance and financial performance: An investigation of listed french firms using panel smooth transition model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    16. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2008. "The non-linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in Europe: A threshold panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2705-2721, September.
    17. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2015. "Will precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 284-291.
    18. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    19. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 455-464, September.
    20. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2012. "Gold as an Infl ation Hedge in a Time-Varying Coeffi cient Framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 0362, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:11:p:1065-1070. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.