IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2023i2p125-142.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rates on Energy Demand in E7 Countries: New Evidence from Multiple Thresholds Nonlinear ARDL Model

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaohui GONG

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Ludong University, Yantai, China;)

  • Bisharat Hussain CHANG

    (Department of Business Administration, Sukkur IBA University, Sukkur, Sindh, Pakistan)

  • Xi CHEN

    (Finance and Investment, Guangdong University of Finance, Guangzhou, China;)

  • Kaiyang ZHONG

    (School of Economic Information Engineering, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China;)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of very small to very large changes in the exchange rate on energy demand in the emerging 7 (E7) countries - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey, which has not been thoroughly explored in the literature. We use the multiple thresholds nonlinear ARDL (MTNARDL) approach and compare its results with conventional ARDL and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) methods. Moreover, we use Granger causality in the quantile test for robustness purposes. Our findings reveal that the MTNARDL approach with decile series shows a long-run association between energy demand and the exchange rate for all E7 countries. In contrast, the conventional ARDL and NARDL approach only finds a long-run association for India. Finally, our results based on the Granger causality in quantile test suggest that the effect varies across various quantiles. The study provides valuable policy recommendations based on the results, emphasizing the importance of considering the impact of extreme exchange rate variations when formulating energy demand policies in E7 countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaohui GONG & Bisharat Hussain CHANG & Xi CHEN & Kaiyang ZHONG, 2023. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rates on Energy Demand in E7 Countries: New Evidence from Multiple Thresholds Nonlinear ARDL Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 125-142, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2023:i:2:p:125-142
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_2023/rjef2_2023p125-142.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Amatul Razzaq Chaudhary & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Is energy consumption sensitive to foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation in Pakistan?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(52), pages 5641-5658, June.
    2. Hashmi, Shabir Mohsin & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Huang, Liangfang & Uche, Emmanuel, 2022. "Revisiting the relationship between oil prices, exchange rate, and stock prices: An application of quantile ARDL model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Liddle, Brantley & Sadorsky, Perry, 2020. "How much do asymmetric changes in income and energy prices affect energy demand?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    4. Omer Faruk Derindag & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Raheel Gohar & Asma Salman, 2022. "Exchange Rate Effect on the Household Consumption in BRICST Countries: Evidence from MATNARDL Model," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman, 2016. "The U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and the Demand for Oil," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1), pages 90-114, January.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. Qasim Raza Syed & Waseem Shahid Malik & Bisharat Hussain Chang, 2019. "Volatility Spillover Effect Of Federal Reserve’S Balance Sheet On The Financial And Goods Markets Of Indo-Pak Region," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(03), pages 1-18, September.
    8. Brantley Liddle and Hillard Huntington, 2020. "Revisiting the Income Elasticity of Energy Consumption: A Heterogeneous, Common Factor, Dynamic OECD & non-OECD Country Panel Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 207-230.
    9. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata Kumar, 2015. "Asymmetric impact of crude price on oil product pricing in the United States: An application of multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 436-443.
    10. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Pervez Ahmed & Zafar Hayat, 2020. "Does Gold Act as a Hedge or a Safe Haven? Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 69-80.
    11. Emmanuel Uche & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Raheel Gohar, 2022. "Consumption Optimization in G7 Countries: Evidence of Heterogeneous Asymmetry in Income and Price Differentials," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(01), pages 1-23, February.
    12. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Raheel Gohar & Omer Faruk Derindag & Emmanuel Uche, 2022. "COVID-19, lockdown measures and their impact on food and healthcare prices: empirical evidence using a dynamic ARDL model," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 50(5), pages 1008-1026, September.
    13. Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Exchange rate nonlinearities in EMU exports to the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 66-76.
    14. Raheel Gohar & Salim Bagadeem & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Muyu Zong, 2022. "Do The Income And Price Changes Affect Consumption In The Emerging 7 Countries? Empirical Evidence Using Quantile Ardl Model," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(04), pages 1-24, December.
    15. Waheed Ali & Raheel Gohar & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Wing-Keung Wong, 2022. "Revisiting the impacts of globalization, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on environmental quality in South Asia," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 26(3), pages 75-98, September.
    16. Omer Faruk Derindag & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Raheel Gohar & Wing-Keung Wong & Niaz Ahmed Bhutto, 2023. "Food prices response to global and national factors: Evidence beyond asymmetry," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 2187128-218, December.
    17. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Niaz Ahmed Bhutto, 2019. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the US Exports: A New Evidence From Multiple Threshold Nonlinear ARDL Model," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, June.
    18. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata Kumar, 2019. "Asymmetric oil price transmission to the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar: A multiple threshold NARDL modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Niaz Hussain Ghumro, 2018. "Asymmetric Impact Of Exchange Rate Changes On The Trade Balance: Does Global Financial Crisis Matter?," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(04), pages 1-18, December.
    20. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2016. "Asymmetric oil product pricing in India: Evidence from a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-328.
    21. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Bisharat Hussain Chang, 2023. "Asymmetric effect of macroeconomic variables on the emerging stock indices: A quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1006-1024, January.
    22. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade: Evidence from global financial crisis and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 64-97, March.
    23. Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Sharif, Arshian & Aman, Ameenullah & Suki, Norazah Mohd & Salman, Asma & Khan, Syed Abdul Rehman, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of oil price on sectoral Islamic stocks: New evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    24. Victor Troster, 2018. "Testing for Granger-causality in quantiles," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 850-866, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim FAROUQ & Zunaidah SULONG, 2023. "The Effect of Climate Policy Shocks and Global Financial Shocks on Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from South Africa," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 72-90, December.
    2. Andrej Privara & Raheel Gohar & Haitham M. Alzoubi & Akash Kalra & Mohammed Ahmar Uddin & Bisharat Hussain Chang, 2025. "Exploring exchange rate sensitivity to crude oil futures: A study of selected global economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, February.
    3. Tareq Almazyad & Alina Maydybura & Ali Gohar Chang & Khalil Ahmed Channa & Shin-Hung Pan & Haitham M. ALZOUBI & Bisharat Hussain Chang, 2024. "Carbon emissions and the rising effect of foreign direct investment and trade openness: Evidence from panel data countries," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 28(4), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Lu, Man & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Salman, Asma & Razzaq, Muthanna G. Abdul & Uddin, Mohammed Ahmar, 2023. "Time varying connectedness between foreign exchange markets and crude oil futures prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    5. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yahya, Farzan, 2024. "Mitigating energy instability: The influence of trilemma choices, financial development, and technology advancements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Shiying Chen & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Hu Fu & ShiQi Xie, 2024. "Dynamic analysis of the relationship between exchange rates and oil prices: a comparison between oil exporting and oil importing countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huo, Dongxia & Bagadeem, Salim & Elsherazy, Tarek Abbas & Nasnodkar, Siddhesh Prabhu & Kalra, Akash, 2023. "Renewable energy consumption and the rising effect of climate policy uncertainty: Fresh policy analysis from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1459-1474.
    2. Ennadifi Imane & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Tarek Abbas Elsherazy & Wing-Keung Wong & Mohammed Ahmar Uddin, 2023. "The External Exchange Rate Volatility Influence on The Trade Flows: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Model," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 27(2), pages 75-98, June.
    3. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Khalil Ahmed Channa & Emmanuel Uche & Osamah Ibrahim Khalaf & Osamah Waheed Ali, 2022. "Analyzing the impacts of terrorism on innovation activity: A cross country empirical study," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 26(Special), pages 124-161, December.
    4. Lu, Man & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Salman, Asma & Razzaq, Muthanna G. Abdul & Uddin, Mohammed Ahmar, 2023. "Time varying connectedness between foreign exchange markets and crude oil futures prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    5. Emmanuel Uche & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Lionel Effiom, 2023. "Household consumption and exchange rate extreme dynamics: Multiple asymmetric threshold non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag model perspective," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3437-3450, July.
    6. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Omer Faruk Derindag & Nuri Hacievliyagil & Mehmet Canakci, 2022. "Exchange rate response to economic policy uncertainty: evidence beyond asymmetry," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Tareq Almazyad & Alina Maydybura & Ali Gohar Chang & Khalil Ahmed Channa & Shin-Hung Pan & Haitham M. ALZOUBI & Bisharat Hussain Chang, 2024. "Carbon emissions and the rising effect of foreign direct investment and trade openness: Evidence from panel data countries," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 28(4), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade: Evidence from global financial crisis and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 64-97, March.
    9. Hashmi, Shabir Mohsin & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Huang, Liangfang & Uche, Emmanuel, 2022. "Revisiting the relationship between oil prices, exchange rate, and stock prices: An application of quantile ARDL model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Hashmi, Shabir Mohsin & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Rong, Li, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of COVID-19 pandemic on E7 stock indices: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Bisharat Hussain Chang, 2023. "Asymmetric effect of macroeconomic variables on the emerging stock indices: A quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1006-1024, January.
    12. Uche, Emmanuel & Ihezukwu, Veronica Adaku & Osunkwo, Folusho Olufunke Chinyere & Okoronkwo, Chijioke, 2021. "Does Oil Consumption Respond Asymmetrically to Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Income Differentials?," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(2), pages 51-63.
    13. Das, Narasingha & Gangopadhyay, Partha & Alghamdi, Thamer & Sarwar, Suleman & Haseeb, Mohammad & Barut, Abdulkadir & Dey, Labani, 2023. "Understanding the role of efficiency in the electricity generation process for promoting human development in India: Findings from the novel multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL modelling," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Niaz Ahmed Bhutto, 2019. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the US Exports: A New Evidence From Multiple Threshold Nonlinear ARDL Model," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, June.
    15. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2022. "Do airfares respond asymmetrically to fuel price changes? A multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    16. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Shiying Chen & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Hu Fu & ShiQi Xie, 2024. "Dynamic analysis of the relationship between exchange rates and oil prices: a comparison between oil exporting and oil importing countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    18. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata Kumar, 2019. "Asymmetric oil price transmission to the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar: A multiple threshold NARDL modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Anthony N. Rezitis, 2019. "Investigating price transmission in the Finnish dairy sector: an asymmetric NARDL approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 861-900, September.
    20. Sharma, Chandan & Pal, Debdatta, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and India's cross-border trade: A pooled mean group and nonlinear cointegration approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 230-246.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy demand; E7 countries; exchange rate; multiple thresholds nonlinear ARDL model; MTNARDL model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2023:i:2:p:125-142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.