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Price Discovery in Private Negotiation Trading with Forward and Spot Deliveries

Author

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  • Dale J. Menkhaus
  • Owen R. Phillips
  • Allison F. M. Johnston
  • Alla V. Yakunina

Abstract

Advance production in spot markets increases seller costs because inventories must be held. This cost does not exist in production-to-demand (or forward) markets, for which production follows trading, and sales exactly match quantities produced. Data from laboratory-computerized markets that trade through private negotiation are analyzed. For the experimental supply and demand conditions, price convergence patterns show spot prices 10.8% lower and the number of trades 12.4% fewer than forward outcomes. The adverse impact of advance production and private negotiation on seller earnings is emphasized when earnings are compared with those from double auction trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Dale J. Menkhaus & Owen R. Phillips & Allison F. M. Johnston & Alla V. Yakunina, 2003. "Price Discovery in Private Negotiation Trading with Forward and Spot Deliveries," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 89-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:25:y:2003:i:1:p:89-107.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1467-9353.00047
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    Cited by:

    1. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2008. "Price discovery in a private cash forward market for lumber," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 73-89, January.
    2. Menkhaus, Dale J. & Phillips, Owen R. & Bastian, Christopher T. & Gittings, Lance B., 2004. "Matching And Inventory Loss Risks As Facilitators Of Market Power In Private Negotiation Spot Trading," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20212, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Blank, Steven C. & Saitone, Tina L. & Sexton, Richard J., 2016. "Calf and Yearling Prices in the Western United States: Spatial, Quality, and Temporal Factors in Satellite Video Auctions," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-23.
    4. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2006. "Contribution to Price Discovery in the Forest Product Market: Futures, Forwards, and Spot Markets," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21250, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2005. "Price Discovery in Private Cash Forward Markets - The Case of Lumber," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19049, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Blank, Steven C. & Saitone, Tina L. & Sexton, Richard J., 2014. "Seller-Offered Forward Contracts: An Additional Benefit to Cattle Producers from Satellite Video Auctions," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162323, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Koontz Stephen R & Ward Clement E, 2011. "Livestock Mandatory Price Reporting: A Literature Review and Synthesis of Related Market Information Research," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-33, July.

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